Perilous Polycrisis Prompts Paradigm Pursuit

The steel industry, long considered a linchpin of global industrialisation, now faces a fundamental reckoning amid what experts at the Fastmarkets’ 2025 International Iron Ore & Green Steel Summit term a “mega VUCA” environment, marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity & ambiguity. Andreas Eichstaedt, Head of Research & Strategy (Raw Materials Procurement) at thyssenkrupp, emphasised during his presentation that geopolitical unrest, armed conflict and erratic price fluctuations are destabilising steelmakers’ efforts to decarbonise. In his words, the sector "stands at the cusp of a mega VUCA world," where every strategic decision is shrouded in shifting sands.

Fragmented Frameworks Frustrate Forward Footing

Currently, there is no universal definition of "green steel," leaving the market fragmented and uncertain. Paulo Carvalho, managing director at decarbValue Limited, issued a warning: “The layered complexities of a multi‑faceted world…could stand in the way of converging on a common discourse.” He drew attention to the lessons learnt in the hydrogen sector, where a “global definition of green hydrogen has formed the backbone of the Green Hydrogen Standard,” and urged that steel must follow suit.

Taxonomic Templating Tackled Through Territorial Trials

One promising initiative cited was India’s Green Steel Taxonomy, launched in December 2024. The taxonomy classifies steel as “green” when its carbon footprint is below 2.2 metric tons of CO₂₍ₑ₎ per metric ton of finished steel. This tiered approach allows for varying degrees of “greenness.” According to a press release from India’s Ministry of Steel, this threshold forms a flexible baseline for voluntary classification, and could serve as a model for other territories to emulate.

Consensus Cultivation Calls for Converging Constituents

During a panel on the viability of green steel in Europe, José Noldin, CEO of GravitHY, argued for a holistic model that includes buyers, sellers and an impartial authority. “The views of a microcosm of the market…should form the base of discussion,” he said. Noldin was especially critical of carbon credit schemes, referring to mass balance approaches as a "fake concept" that obscures real emissions reductions. He called instead for “measurable parameters” that track actual CO₂ output.

Incentive Infrastructure Imperative for Industrial Integrity

Eichstaedt reiterated that while private-sector innovation is vital, market forces alone cannot hasten the green transition. He highlighted that “government incentives…are critical to level the playing field” and mentioned tools like carbon pricing, tax credits and direct R&D subsidies. However, he cautioned against overreliance on regulation, noting that “innovation, market adaptability & cross‑border trade need breathing space to mature.”

Regulatory Robustness Renders Regional Readiness

A Singapore based trader at the summit observed that the European Union, with its cohesive regulatory apparatus, is well-positioned to spearhead green steel standardisation. They pointed out that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism already lays a foundation for treating embedded emissions as a tradeable concern. This, the trader said, “gives the EU the strongest potential in coalescing a measured approach in defining green steel in the mega VUCA world.”

Temporal Tensions Tighten Transition Timelines

Delegates agreed that the urgency could not be overstated: steel production contributes roughly 8% of global CO₂ emissions, and decarbonised steel is in high demand across automotive and infrastructure sectors. Eichstaedt warned that delays in consensus would erode the efficacy of decarbonisation timelines under the Paris Agreement. He described the race to define green steel as “existential,” stressing the need for immediate action.

Dialectic Dialogue Demands Deliberate Determination

The summit concluded with a call to sustained industry dialogue. Carvalho said aligning disparate global interests “may seem Sisyphean,” but maintained that industry‐led, science‑driven standards, constructed through transparent, iterative processes, can prevail. He encouraged delegates to mirror the hydrogen sector’s success through collaborative threshold-setting, establishing a robust path forward for green steel that transcends regional divides.

Key Takeaways:

• Andreas Eichstaedt of thyssenkrupp categorised the current environment as a “mega VUCA world,” warning it may derail coherent green‑steel frameworks.

• India’s Green Steel Taxonomy sets a CO₂₍ₑ₎ threshold of <2.2 metric tons per ton of steel as a pioneering voluntary benchmark.

• José Noldin of GravitHY criticised “mass balance” carbon‑credit schemes as a “fake concept,” advocating for direct, measurable CO₂ reductions.