Statistical Storyline Shapes Strategic Shift

In H1 2025, Severstal reported a 5.5% revenue fall to $4.68B USD while sales volumes grew by 3% to 5.61 million metric tons. CEO Alexander Shevelev remarked, “This volume resilience amid price pressure underlines our operational agility.” The firm’s average selling price dipped by 8.2% compared to H1 2024, reflecting weaker export markets, yet domestic demand, especially from construction, provided partial relief. Severstal’s pivot toward higher value-added products, like coated steel & pipes, cushioned deeper declines. This data-driven strategy shows how balancing volume & value remains the sine qua non of modern steel competitiveness.

Methodical Modernization Mitigates Market Malaise

Severstal has methodically modernized production assets since 2005, integrating AI-based quality control & predictive maintenance. CTO Alexei Kuznetsov noted, “Our digital twins & data platforms now track thousands of variables, cutting downtime by 12%.” New electric arc furnaces reduce CO₂ per metric ton of steel by 18%, while smart logistics lower transport CO₂. These upgrades, funded partly by reinvested earnings, shift Severstal’s portfolio from pure volume to technology-augmented resilience, underscoring how methodological evolution strengthens global competitiveness.

Fiscal Fortification Fosters Future Flexibility

Despite softer prices, Severstal kept EBITDA margins near 23% by tightening cost structures. CFO Vladimir Lukin explained, “We hedged raw material costs, renegotiated supplier terms & improved energy efficiency, saving $126M USD.” Lower debt ratios offer flexibility for new investments or share buybacks. Capital expenditure stayed stable at $321M USD, focusing on digital projects & environmental upgrades. This fiscal discipline, rooted in robust scenario planning, preserves liquidity & positions Severstal for recovery when global demand rebounds.

Digital Dashboards Drive Data-Dominant Decisions

Severstal’s data transformation uses real-time dashboards monitoring emissions, output & energy. CIO Natalia Petrova stated, “These dashboards cut reporting times by 40% & reveal inefficiencies invisible before.” AI algorithms optimize furnace temperatures & scrap mix, saving H₂O & energy. Live dashboards also help managers anticipate bottlenecks & schedule preventive maintenance, boosting uptime. The digital shift turns Severstal into a data-defined enterprise, moving from reactive correction to predictive prevention.

Sustainability Strategies Strengthen Social Standing

Severstal reduced specific CO₂ intensity by 7% in H1 2025, aided by cleaner energy contracts & higher scrap use. Sustainability director Dmitry Orlov shared, “We now use 28% scrap in steelmaking, up from 24% last year.” Environmental upgrades also include dust capture systems & closed-loop H₂O circuits, lowering water withdrawal by 9%. These steps align Severstal with global ESG standards, attracting buyers seeking verified low-carbon steel, and improving acceptance in export markets facing stricter carbon border taxes.

Regulatory Realignment Reinforces Resilient Returns

Facing sanctions & trade barriers, Severstal realigned supply toward friendly markets like Central Asia & MENA. Trade director Olga Fedoseeva noted, “We adapted quickly, forging new routes & localizing supply chains.” Regulatory compliance shifted from EU norms to regional rules, while maintaining ISO-based quality systems. This agility preserved export volumes, preventing steeper revenue drops. Proactive adaptation shows how regulatory flexibility becomes integral to survival in geopolitically volatile sectors.

Strategic Synergies Sustain Sales Stability

Beyond internal reforms, Severstal deepened partnerships across construction, machinery & energy sectors. “These alliances secure baseline demand even in weak markets,” said commercial director Ivan Markov. Long-term contracts now cover 42% of sales, up from 35% last year, smoothing quarterly volatility. Joint R&D projects on corrosion-resistant steels & lower CO₂ alloys also create future revenue streams. Such ecosystem thinking strengthens Severstal’s stability, building an interlinked network rather than isolated transactions.

Severstal PJSC (MOEX: CHMF)

- Current Price: 1,040.00 RUB 

- Daily Change: -21.20 RUB (-2.00%) 

1. Support & Resistance 

   - Strong Support: 1,020–1,030 RUB (May 2024 low + psychological floor). 

   - Immediate Resistance: 1,060–1,080 RUB (50-day SMA zone + pre-drop consolidation). 

   - Critical Break: 

     - Close below 1,020 RUB → Targets 980 RUB (2024 low). 

     - Close above 1,080 RUB → Reclaims 1,120 RUB (200-day SMA). 

2. Moving Averages (SMA) 

   - 50-day SMA: Likely ~1,065 RUB (price below → bearish pressure). 

   - 200-day SMA: ~1,120 RUB (downward slope → long-term downtrend). 

   - Death Cross: 50-SMA below 200-SMA since Q1 2024 → entrenched weakness. 

3. RSI (Relative Strength Index) 

   - Current Implication: 

     - Drop to ~35–40 (approaching oversold) → Potential bounce if RUB stabilizes. 

     - RSI <30 + CHMF fundamentals → Contrarian opportunity. 

4. MACD 

   - Likely Signal: 

     - MACD line below signal line → Bearish momentum. 

     - Widening red histogram → Selling accelerating. 

5. Bollinger Bands 

   - Volatility Context: 

     - Price near lower band: Oversold signal (but Russian equities often ignore technical extremes). 

     - Band Expansion: Falling RUB amplifies moves → Risk of breakdown. 

6. Fibonacci Retracement 

   - Range (2024 high: 1,250 RUB, 2024 low: 980 RUB): 

     - 38.2% retracement: 1,080 RUB → Key resistance (aligns with 50-SMA). 

     - 61.8% retracement: 1,160 RUB → Unlikely without RUB recovery. 

Key Takeaways

•      Severstal’s revenue dropped 5.5% in H1 2025 despite 3% volume growth

•      Digitalization & cost controls preserved margins near 23%

•      Sustainability gains included higher scrap use & lower CO₂ intensity