ENERGY

Buoyant Barrels & Bilateral Bargains Boost Brent

Crude’s Capricious Climb Amid Supply Swells

Crude Oil ascended to 65.37 USD/Bbl on July 28, 2025, recording a slender 0.32% increase from the prior day’s trade. Over the month, prices have risen by a tepid 0.40%, yet they remain 13.77% lower compared to the same period last year. This intricate interplay between modest short-term gains & pronounced annual declines reveals a market wrestling with competing forces of optimism & oversupply.

Venezuelan Volte-Face & Chevron’s Comeback

In a striking reversal, the Trump administration has reportedly permitted Chevron to recommence operations in Venezuela after a hiatus of roughly two months. This pivot aligns with the liberation of several detained Americans, symbolising a cautious détente. Analysts project Venezuelan oil exports could now swell by slightly over 200k barrels per day, a boon for US refiners eager for heavier crude varieties.

Trade Talks Temper Supply Concerns

Amid these developments, optimism over global trade negotiations is tempering fears of a looming glut. With the 1 August deadline approaching, the US claims progress on several trade pacts, notably with Japan & the Philippines, & suggests that dialogue with the EU is advancing. These diplomatic strides are seen as palliatives against persistent demand-side anxieties in the oil market.

Refiners’ Relief & Market Rebalance

The anticipated uptick in Venezuelan exports offers palpable relief to US refiners grappling with scarcity in heavier crude grades. Yet, the market’s response remains nuanced: traders are weighing this incremental supply against the perceived stabilisation benefits stemming from fresh trade agreements. This duality underscores a delicate balancing act between geopolitical manoeuvres & fundamental market forces.

Short-Term Sentiment Versus Long-Term Lag

Despite daily & monthly gains, the annual price contraction of 13.77% highlights structural challenges that transcend transient news cycles. Market participants remain vigilant, parsing signals from diplomatic corridors & production fields alike, ever wary of the next geopolitical twist that might tip the scales anew.

Key Takeaways

• Crude Oil price rose to 65.37 USD/Bbl on July 28, 2025, up 0.32% from the previous day.

• Over the past month, oil prices increased by 0.40%, yet remain 13.77% lower than a year ago.

• Chevron is resuming Venezuelan operations, potentially boosting exports by over 200k barrels per day.

• The US concluded new trade deals with Japan & the Philippines & reported progress in talks with the EU.

• Market optimism over trade is balancing concerns about additional Venezuelan oil supply.

Tepid Troughs & Tenacious Top-Ups Temper Tensions

Futures Falter Amid Filling Facilities

European natural gas futures slipped under €33/MWh, marking their lowest point since May. This price easing mirrors the steady progress in storage refilling, as the EU collectively surpassed 65% capacity. Though encouraging, this figure still lingers beneath last year’s 83% & the five-year norm, underscoring the bloc’s lingering exposure to unforeseen supply constraints.

Strategic Storage & Seasonal Safeguards

To fortify its energy bulwark, the European Parliament pragmatically postponed the target deadline to reach 90% storage from September to December. This recalibration aligns storage timelines closer to actual winter demand, buying precious weeks to stockpile vital reserves before the seasonal surge in consumption begins.

LNG Lifelines & Latent Leverage

Europe’s replenishment efforts have leaned heavily on liquefied natural gas imports, seizing the moment created by subdued Asian demand. Notably, China’s imports plunged nearly 20% in H1 2025, unlocking surplus LNG cargoes on the global market. This serendipitous slack empowered European buyers to secure spot shipments, reinvigorating inventories ahead of winter.

Country Catch-Up & Capacity Gaps

Within the EU, storage progress remains uneven: Germany holds roughly 58%, Italy edges near 78%, & France surpasses 73%. These disparate figures reflect divergent import strategies & infrastructure readiness, leaving certain nations potentially more susceptible should supply disruptions emerge as winter deepens.

Risks Remain Despite Recent Resilience

While storage levels show short-term promise, the region’s inventories remain comparatively modest by historical standards. This lingering deficit preserves Europe’s vulnerability to geopolitical tremors or unexpected demand spikes that could swiftly tighten supply, reaffirming the delicate balance between preparation & peril.

Key Takeaways

• European gas futures fell below €33/MWh, the lowest since May.

• EU storage has reached over 65% capacity, aiming for 80% by November 1.

• The European Parliament delayed the 90% storage deadline from September to December.

• China’s nearly 20% demand decline in H1 2025 freed LNG for Europe.

• Storage remains uneven: Germany at 58%, Italy near 78%, & France over 73%.

Tepid Tonnage & Tenacious Trends Temper Thermal Trade

Fortnightly Flicker in Futures

On July 25, 2025, Newcastle thermal coal futures ascended to $113.75 per metric ton, notching a modest 0.57% daily increase. This short-term gain mirrors a subtle shift in trader sentiment, as market participants cautiously recalibrate positions in response to evolving global demand & regional supply narratives.

Monthly Momentum & Market Modesty

Across the past month, thermal coal prices have advanced by a sturdier 7.16%, signalling renewed momentum in a sector once weighed down by excess supply & tepid industrial appetite. Yet, despite this uptick, market analysts warn that sustained rallies remain improbable without concrete shifts in consumption patterns or production curtailments.

Annual Abyss & Attrition

Despite recent firmness, prices linger 18.31% beneath last year’s level, underscoring the persistent drag of broader macroeconomic headwinds & the measured retreat from coal in many energy portfolios. This annual contraction speaks to structural challenges, as policy pivots & green transition ambitions gradually erode thermal coal’s foothold.

Geopolitics, Grids & Global Gyrations

Beyond price charts, Newcastle thermal coal’s trajectory intertwines intricately with geopolitical tremors, fluctuating power generation demands & shifting export-import flows. Asia’s utility restocking cycles & unpredictable weather events remain key wildcards that could jolt the delicate supply-demand balance.

Speculative Sparks & Strategic Stockpiling

Recent weeks have also seen speculative interest flicker, as traders anticipate potential winter-driven demand spurts or unexpected mine disruptions. Meanwhile, some utilities discreetly replenish inventories, wary of volatility that could arise from sudden policy shifts or logistic bottlenecks at export hubs.

Key Takeaways

• Newcastle thermal coal rose to $113.75 per metric ton on July 25, 2025, up 0.57% day-on-day.

• Over the past month, coal prices gained 7.16%.

• Annual comparison shows prices still 18.31% lower than last year.

• Price dynamics reflect complex interplay of demand, policy & geopolitics.

• Speculative buying & cautious stockpiling add short-term support.

 INPUT MATERIALS

Tumbling Tonnes & Teasing Trade Talks Temper Tensions

Sliding Sessions & Supply Surges

Iron ore futures retreated beneath CNY 800 per metric ton, their third straight session of decline. This dip reflects traders’ unease over ballooning global supply, which has momentarily outweighed speculative appetite & macroeconomic hopes.

Australian Ascendancy & Brazilian Bounty

From Australia, June witnessed record shipments from the nation’s largest bulk-export terminal, a testament to robust mining logistics & relentless production. Simultaneously, Fortescue Metals reached record Q4 deliveries, fulfilling the upper range of its full-year guidance. Across the globe, Brazil’s Vale mined an impressive 83.6 million metric tons of iron ore in Q2, its highest second-quarter output since 2021, reaffirming the country’s mining might.

Chinese Catalyst & Construction Conviction

Despite supply headwinds, iron ore prices drew resilience from China’s renewed stimulus narrative. Beijing’s announcement of a monumental CNY 1.2 trillion hydropower project sparked hopes of surging demand for steel & concrete, pivotal materials for such colossal infrastructure endeavours.

Diplomatic Dialogues & Demand Dynamics

Adding nuance to the market mood, investors turned their gaze towards an impending round of trade talks between the US & China in Stockholm next week. These diplomatic overtures, though delicate, fuel speculation of smoother trade flows & potentially revitalised raw material demand.

Balancing Bears & Buoyant Bets

While iron ore futures grapple short term with swelling stockpiles & record outputs, the market’s medium-term temperament remains tethered to policy pivots & geopolitical gestures. Traders continue to weigh bearish supply data against bullish macro catalysts, keeping volatility alive in the commodity arena.

Key Takeaways

• Iron ore futures slipped below CNY 800 per metric ton, declining for the third consecutive session.

• Australia’s largest bulk-export terminal recorded its highest shipments in June.

• Brazil’s Vale produced 83.6 million metric tons of iron ore in Q2, its best since 2021.

• China’s CNY 1.2 trillion hydropower project lifted hopes for steel & concrete demand.

• Investors await fresh US-China trade talks in Stockholm next week, eyeing demand impact.

Muted Markets & Mercurial Momentum Mold Met Coal Mood

Chinese Demand Dalliance & FOB Firmness

Asian metallurgical coal prices found a foothold on Wednesday, buoyed by flickers of demand from China. Platts assessed premium low-vol hard coking coal unchanged at $176per metric ton FOB Australia, as PLV CFR China advanced $5 per metric ton to $175 per metric ton. A bid for 75,000 metric tons of Australian Peak Downs coal loading late August rose to $174per metric ton FOB, up from earlier levels, reflecting rising confidence tied to China’s futures-led rally.

India’s Indolence & Index Inclination

Despite China’s appetite, physical demand from India remained languid. Traders reported limited offers towards India, with Australian premium mid-vol Goonyella instead floated into China on an index-linked basis. “They are unable to sell in India, so trying luck in China,” one trader noted. Sellers preferred index-linked trades to harness speculative gains, wary of missing out on potential upside amid shifting futures.

Domestic Derivatives Drive Demand

Inside China, domestic coking coal prices kept ascending. Premium low-vol coal from Shanxi’s Lishi region climbed Yuan 50per metric ton to Yuan 1,510 per metric ton ex-washplant. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded coking coal contract for September surged to the 8% daily limit before closing 7.97% higher at Yuan 1,198.5 per metric ton. Traders cautioned the rally blurred lines between genuine demand & speculative fervour.

Coke Cokeries Command Consecutive Climbs

Chinese cokeries spearheaded a third consecutive round of domestic coke price hikes, lifting offers by Yuan 50-55 per metric ton. Indicative August loading offers rose to $215 per metric ton FOB for Chinese 65/63 CSR coke & $200-$205per metric ton FOB for Indonesian grades. This cascade of increases echoed across regional markets, tightening near-term supply even as demand differentials persisted between China & India.

Steadfast Sentiment in Subcontinental Sphere

Amid these gyrations, CFR India prices remained steady, underscoring thin spot buying & tepid steel mill restocking. An Indian steelmaker observed “just a small tick of panic” from fewer spot offers, yet broader sentiment stayed muted. Traders noted the market’s pivot towards floating offers left fixed-price cargoes scarce, adding intrigue to coming weeks.

Key Takeaways

• Asian met coal prices stayed steady as China’s demand built momentum.

• Premium low-vol hard coking coal assessed unchanged at $176 per metric ton FOB Australia.

• India’s demand stayed subdued; sellers preferred index-linked offers.

• Chinese cokeries raised domestic coke prices for a third consecutive round.

• Coking coal futures on the DCE surged, hitting an 8% daily limit before easing.

Pig Iron Paralysis & Pensive Projections Stall Brazilian Trade

Stagnant Prices & Stalled Transactions

The Brazilian pig iron export market has slipped into an uneasy inertia, as prices persist unchanged at $400–410 per metric ton fob since early July. Market participants are wrestling with the ramifications of a looming 50% import tariff on Brazilian pig iron imposed by the US, slated to commence on 1 August. Despite nominal price stability, actual trade flows have halted, as buyers & sellers alike pause to appraise the shifting geopolitical sands.

Tariff Tremors & Transatlantic Tensions

Brazilian suppliers have observed a pronounced standstill in business directed toward the US, as buyers grapple with the impending cost escalation. “We still don’t know what direction negotiations between the Brazilian & US governments will take, & the market is feeling the pressure. No one knows what to expect,” a market source reflects, encapsulating the prevailing sense of ambiguity clouding the trade horizon.

Producers’ Predicament & Precarious Margins

Both buyers & producers remain reticent to seal new deals under the present haze of uncertainty. A trader candidly notes, “If the tariffs go through, we don’t know if we’ll be able to absorb the higher costs. Everything is on hold.” Meanwhile, a producer underscores the fragile economic calculus: margins are already perilously slim, leaving scant room to offer price concessions without descending into loss-making territory.

Prospective Losses & Lingering Doubts

The producer further elaborates that any retreat below current price thresholds would render transactions unprofitable, potentially sowing seeds of prolonged instability across global pig iron markets. This fraught environment deters new commitments, as the sector collectively braces for clarity on policy direction.

September Shipments & Strategic Hesitation

Brazilian pig iron exporters continue to signal availability for early-September shipments. However, until the true magnitude of the US tariff’s impact crystallises, alongside broader evolutions in international trade, meaningful deal-making remains elusive. Stakeholders on both sides of the Atlantic tread cautiously, wary of locking into prices that could soon prove untenable.

Key Takeaways

• Brazilian pig iron prices held steady at $400–410 per metric ton fob since early July.

• A new 50% US import tariff on Brazilian pig iron will take effect on 1 August.

• Trade has stalled as both buyers & producers await policy clarity.

• Margins for producers are already razor-thin, limiting room for price concessions.

• Suppliers indicate September shipment availability, but deals remain on hold due to uncertainty.

Tenuous Trades & Tumultuous Trends Tinge Turkish Tonnage

Turkish Traders Tread Cautiously Amid Currency Conundrums

In July 2025, Turkey’s scrap market posted modest gains, with HMS 1&2 (80:20) averaging $346 per metric ton CFR, up 0.5% from late June. Rising freight rates, a fragile lira & raw material scarcity offset subdued rebar demand. Turkish mills, facing limited alternatives, paid $345–348 per metric ton CFR, especially as European offers shrank under currency pressures. By month’s end, attention shifted to September, awaiting cues from the Turkish Central Bank to divine price directions.

European Equilibrium Encounters Seasonal Ebb

The EU scrap market navigated divergent currents. In Germany, E3 scrap dropped 4.3% to €280 per metric ton ex-works, pressured by summer holidays & softer exports. Italian prices held steadier at €305 per metric ton delivered, supported by constrained supply. Across the bloc, thin demand & cautious procurement kept trading tepid. Anticipation lingers that August may stabilise prices, yet volumes could remain slack through the holiday stretch.

American Alloy Appetites Anchor Apathy

US scrap prices inched up 0.2% to $313.5 per metric ton FOB East Coast. Early July’s trade slowed amid holidays & new tariffs targeting BRICS nations. Despite strong mill utilisation & steady North American flows under USMCA, exports to Turkey & Asia faced tepid interest. By late July, domestic demand lent ballast, while geopolitical murkiness continued to cloud broader sentiment.

Chinese Contrasts: Domestic Demand Rises as Imports Recede

China’s domestic scrap prices advanced 3.1% to $335.59 per metric ton, buoyed by rising steel futures & official measures curbing cutthroat pricing. Yet, average daily deliveries & consumption slipped, tempering further gains. Meanwhile, import prices dipped 1.1% to $324 per metric ton CFR as Japanese offers fell & tax burdens widened the price gulf. Though quality norms eased in June, limited effect was felt; upcoming permission to import mixed scrap from August may spur renewed interest if prices converge.

Global Gyrations & Geopolitical Gambits Shape Sentiment

Across regions, scrap trade contended with freight volatility, currency fragility & political risk. Turkish mills turned to US cargoes amid shrinking European flows; EU producers balanced supply gaps; US exporters faced Asian resistance; and China toggled between domestic support & import hesitance. Market participants brace for September, tracking central bank moves & policy pivots to gauge the path ahead.

Key Takeaways

• Turkish scrap prices rose 0.5% to $346 per metric ton CFR amid limited supply & weak lira.

• German scrap fell 4.3% to €280 per metric ton, while Italy’s stayed at €305.

• US scrap edged 0.2% higher to $313.5 per metric ton FOB East Coast.

• China’s domestic scrap climbed 3.1% to $335.59 per metric ton; imports dipped 1.1%.

• Traders await September, eyeing central bank signals & new import rules in China.

Billet Bargains & Brazen Barter: Saudi Supply Sways

Local Billet Prices Breach Imported Parity

For the first time in a year, local billet prices in Saudi Arabia have audaciously descended below imported offer values from the Far East, revealing an intriguing shift in domestic competitiveness. 130mm 3sp billet is now offered locally at SAR 1,800–1,825 per metric ton ($480–487) ex-works in Dammam, while delivery to central hubs like Riyadh & Al Kharj fetches SAR 1,845–1,875/metric ton. In contrast, imported 150mm 3sp billet from the Far East is offered at $480–485/metric ton CFR for October shipments, modestly up from last week's $460–465 per metric ton CFR.

Inland Logistics Inflate Central Costs

Transport from Dammam to central Saudi Arabia continues to add SAR 40–45 per metric ton for billet & rebar buyers. Despite these logistical premiums, domestic billet retains its allure over foreign offers, underscoring how local mills are recalibrating strategies to capture inland demand.

Scrap Market Sentiments & Shifting Scales

In the scrap segment, delivered HMS scrap in Jeddah is offered at SAR 1,380–1,400 per metric ton, while central regions command SAR 1,425/metric ton. Shredded scrap scales higher at SAR 1,450 per metric ton. Dammam mirrors this with HMS at SAR 1,450 per metric ton. All prices exclude VAT & presume swift payment within a week. Suppliers seeking extended payment terms beyond 30 days impose an additional SAR 40–50 per metric ton premium, subtly reshaping purchasing dynamics.

HBI Procurement & Fe Fortification

Amidst evolving raw material costs, a central region mill has concluded a deal for 60,000 metric tons of August-shipment hot-briquetted iron enriched at 78–79% Fe content, priced at $319–320 per metric ton delivered. This acquisition underlines the mill’s pursuit of consistent high-grade feedstock to hedge against volatile scrap fluctuations.

Technological Tweaks & Domestic Optimisation

Tameer Steel, in a strategic stride, will soon commission a Vezzani-supplied scrap segregation & shearing line at its Jeddah facility by late August or early September. This addition, boasting a capacity of 1,000 metric tons/day, promises to bolster domestic scrap processing efficiency, thereby trimming import reliance & enhancing cost-effectiveness.

Outlook from Industry Insiders

A senior mill executive remarked: “Imported billet offers are no longer competitive. Local scrap prices have improved but must fall another SAR 50–75 per metric ton to echo global levels.” This candour reflects an industry recalibrating amid fluid global cues & local recalibration.

Key Takeaways

• Saudi local billet prices dropped below imported offers for the first time in a year, signalling stronger domestic competitiveness.

• Transport costs from Dammam to central Saudi Arabia add SAR 40–45 per metric ton for buyers.

• Delivered HMS scrap in Jeddah ranges SAR 1,380–1,400 per metric ton; shredded scrap reaches SAR 1,450 per metric ton.

• A central mill secured 60,000 metric tons of August-shipment hot-briquetted iron at $319–320 per metric ton.

• Tameer Steel will start a Vezzani-supplied scrap shearing line in Jeddah by early September, enhancing processing by 1,000 metric tons/day.

CHINA

Buoyant Bars & Blazing Billets Bolster Bourse Bets

Resilient Rebar Rallies & Robust Revenues

On July 25, China’s national price for HRB400E 20mm diameter rebar rose Yuan 45 per metric ton from the previous day to Yuan 3,429 per metric ton, the highest since March. Spot rebar prices surpassed Yuan 3,400 per metric ton, reflecting sustained buying appetite driven by policy optimism & production controls in the coal sector.

Vigorous Volumes & Vibrant Velocity

Spot trading volume for long steel products, including wire rod & bar-in-coil, remained elevated at 126,073 metric tons/day. Though it slipped modestly by 1.4% (1,758 metric tons/day) from the prior day, overall momentum highlighted resilient end-user demand & distributor restocking.

Ferrous Futures Find Fresh Fervour

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, September coking coal & coke contracts surged to daily upper limits. Meanwhile, the most-traded rebar contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped Yuan 100 per metric ton (3.1%) to close at Yuan 3,307 per metric ton. This futures rally underscored traders’ confidence in sustained demand & supportive policy frameworks.

EXW & FOB Figures Fuel Forward Focus

Week-on-week, EXW rebar prices gained 4% to Yuan 3,485 per metric ton, while EXW HRC climbed equally by 4% to Yuan 3,493 per metric ton. In export markets, FOB rebar strengthened 3% to $475 per metric ton & FOB HRC outperformed with a 5% increase to $485 per metric ton. These figures mirror global buyers’ growing appetite & China’s strategic policy tailwinds.

Policies, Projects & Price Prospects

Market sentiment has been bolstered by China’s anti-involution policy & the unveiling of a colossal Yuan 1.2 trillion hydropower project on the lower Yarlung Zangbo River. Together, these factors renewed optimism, balanced against seasonal slowdowns & external headwinds. Observers now watch for further policy cues that could shape September’s market dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• China’s spot rebar prices hit Yuan 3,429 per metric ton, highest since March.

• EXW rebar & HRC rose 4% week-on-week; FOB rebar & HRC rose 3% & 5%, respectively.

• Daily spot trading volume stayed high at over 126,000 metric tons despite a slight 1.4% dip.

• Ferrous futures rallied; Shanghai’s October rebar contract rose 3.1% to Yuan 3,307 per metric ton.

• Policy tailwinds, including a Yuan 1.2 trillion hydropower project, lifted sentiment.

GCC

Halcyon Hikes & Hesitant Hedging Temper GCC Coil Trade

Chinese Futures Fuel Regional Ripples

Hot rolled coil prices in the Gulf Cooperation Council have ascended by $10–25 per metric ton over the past week, mirroring a concurrent $10 per metric ton rise in ex-China HRC benchmarks. Chinese mills abruptly retreated their offers as domestic futures markets surged, hinting at heightened speculative fervour. A select few mills cautiously floated tentative offers at $505–510 per metric ton for 3mm base grade (S235JR/SS400) targeting late September shipments, though most buyers withheld immediate feedback, preferring to await definitive confirmation.

Japanese & Korean Mills Animate Autumn Orders

Last week, three regional re-rollers procured a collective 55,000 metric tons from a major Japanese supplier for early-October shipment, negotiated at around $490–495/metric ton for 2mm SAE1006 base grade. Simultaneously, a pipemaker in Oman secured 10,000–12,000 metric tons at $485–486 per metric ton for end-September shipment. South Korean mills also demonstrated strategic vigour, tabling final offers for SAE1006 grade at $495 per metric ton, notably comprising 55% 2mm material, complemented by 2.5–3mm thickness.

Price Divergence & Diverse Origins

As of Tuesday, Japanese-origin SPHC/SAE1006 (2mm & above) commanded offers at $500 per metric ton for October shipment. South Korean producers, including Hyundai & Posco, quoted $505 per metric ton for mid-to-late October dispatch, underscoring their continued market engagement. In a notable divergence, Indian-origin 2mm SAE1006 resurfaced after a lengthy hiatus, offered ambitiously at $540 per metric ton for August shipment, a conspicuous premium relative to East Asian counterparts.

Galvanized Coil Gains Spur Regional Sellers

In the United Arab Emirates, galvanized coil prices responded to zinc’s recent rally, escalating nearly $20 per metric ton to settle at $780–800 per metric ton delivered for 1mm Z275 grade for October delivery. Parallelly, an ex-China offer emerged at $630 per metric ton for 1mm Z120, reflecting an increasingly diverse supply landscape across the GCC.

Buyer Caution Amid Price Volatility

Despite the discernible upward momentum in offers, GCC buyers remain circumspect, wary of committing amidst pronounced price fluctuations. Many continue to monitor freight alternatives & shipment timings, balancing immediate procurement needs against potential softening in future offers, especially given the fragmented global demand outlook.

Key Takeaways

• GCC HRC prices rose $10–25 per metric ton, tracking ex-China gains of $10 per metric ton.

• Three re-rollers booked 55,000 metric tons from Japan at $490–495 per metric ton.

• South Korean mills offered SAE1006 at $495 per metric ton; Indian SAE1006 appeared at $540 per metric ton.

• UAE galvanized coil prices surged by nearly $20 per metric ton to $780–800 per metric ton for Z275.

• Buyers across the GCC remain hesitant, observing price trends before committing to new deals.

EUROPE

Mills Maneuver & Markets Mull Amid Modest Markups

ArcelorMittal’s Assertive Adjustment Amplifies Anticipation

ArcelorMittal raised domestic offers by €30 per metric ton, setting fresh targets at €590 per metric ton delivered in northern Europe & €580 per metric ton in the south for September–October deliveries. This decisive move, supported by expectations from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, seeks to counterbalance lukewarm consumption trends across the bloc.

Northern Neighbours Navigate Narrow Notches

Other mills in northern Europe trailed cautiously, lifting September–October HRC offers by €10–20 per metric ton week on week, placing them at €560–580 per metric ton ex-works. However, real trades gravitated towards €540–550 per metric ton ex-works, up €10 per metric ton from last week. Market watchers warned that reliance on protectionist measures may prove overly optimistic if end-user demand fails to materialize.

Italian Increments Inspire Incremental Interest

In Italy, indicative mill offers climbed to €540–550 per metric ton ex-works for September delivery, marking a €10 per metric ton rise over the past week. Meanwhile, workable prices firmed to €525–530 per metric ton ex-works from last week’s €510–525 per metric ton, reflecting cautious restocking amid thin downstream orders.

Import Inertia & International Inputs

Southern Europe’s import HRC offers largely stayed at €450–500 per metric ton CFR. Indonesian material clustered around €450–460 per metric ton CFR, while Indian-origin HRC surfaced at $580–585 per metric ton CFR, roughly €493–497 per metric ton. Turkish HRC, duty included, persisted at €480–500 per metric ton CFR, mirroring prior week levels & hinting at balanced external supply.

Mills Meditate on Momentum Beyond Mere Measures

Though major mills have closed order books for September, some now float modest hikes for October. Yet, traders remain cautious: “Whether higher offers will translate into deals remains uncertain,” noted one insider. As European mills bet on CBAM & new safeguards, real market traction may hinge less on policy levers & more on resurgent consumption.

Key Takeaways

• ArcelorMittal raised EU HRC offers by €30 per metric ton, citing CBAM optimism.

• Northern mills lifted offers by €10–20 per metric ton; real trades rose €10 per metric ton.

• Italian ex-works prices gained €10 per metric ton week on week, trading at €525–530.

• Imports held steady: Indonesia at €450–460, India near €493–497, Turkey €480–500 per metric ton CFR.

• Market sentiment remains cautious, questioning if list hikes will convert into real deals.

Listless Longs & Languid Leverage Lull Northern Ledgers

Seasonal Slumber Subdues Steel Sentiment

Long steel markets across Northern Europe weakened as the traditional holiday period trimmed trading. “This year, the effect of holidays is stronger than normally,” noted one seller. Buyers delayed orders, wary of overstocking amid quiet construction sites & muted short-term demand.

German & Polish Prices Pivot Toward Parity

German mills maintained rebar offers at €620–630 per metric ton delivered. Yet material from Poland found German buyers at €600–610 per metric ton, with deals clustering near the lower end. The Polish discount stemmed from weakening domestic demand, pressuring mills to sell competitively across borders.

Austrian Acquisitions Adjust to Affordable Alternatives

In Austria, Italian rebar in coils changed hands for about €610 per metric ton delivered, roughly equal to €600 per metric ton for straight bars. Earlier July bookings had fetched higher prices, but by late July, buyers pushed for discounts, leveraging ample import supply despite Italy’s slight domestic price uptick.

Wire Rod Retreats in Regional Rebalancing

Mesh wire rod from German producers softened to €590–595 per metric ton delivered. Polish offers further pressured the market, estimated below €590 per metric ton delivered. Meanwhile, upper-end values at €610 per metric ton remained static, propped up by traditionally stronger Dutch & Danish markets where data input dwindled under holiday absences.

Markets Monitor Mid-Summer Malaise

By July 28, the indicative domestic rebar range in Northern Europe shifted downward to €600–630 per metric ton, compared to €615–630 per metric ton the previous week. Similarly, the mesh wire rod range moved to €590–610 per metric ton from €600–610 per metric ton, highlighting fragile demand amid the holiday lull.

Key Takeaways

• Northern European rebar prices softened to €600–630 per metric ton.

• German mills held offers at €620–630, while Polish rebar traded at €600–610 per metric ton.

• Italian rebar sold in Austria at about €610 per metric ton delivered, down from early July.

• Mesh wire rod dipped to €590–595 per metric ton; Polish material offered even lower.

• Upper price limits held steady in the Netherlands & Denmark despite reduced trading.