Clamorous Coal Currents & Cautious Climb

India’s coking coal import traffic at major ports in April to June FY 2025‑26 saw a modest 1 % rise, according to IPA data. June’s figures reached 4.953 million metric tons, compared to 5.42 million in May, reflecting short‑term fluctuations in shipments. The incremental increase suggests cautious optimism in steel‑making demand.

Monthly Metrics & Market Movements

In May, coking coal arrivals were 5.42 million metric tons, a slight dip from April’s 5.67 million metric tons, indicating volatility in monthly imports. These shifts are tied to international supply constraints and India’s internal logistic capacity, hinting at the need for improved infrastructure resilience.

Capacity Constraints & Climactic Cargo

Steel Secretary Sandeep Poundrik emphasised India’s accelerating steel capacity growth, from 200 million tons to 300 million by 2030, will push coking coal imports to an anticipated 160 million tons. Despite a minor 0.7 % fall in FY 2025 volumes due to weaker supply from Australia and the US, crude steel output still rose by about 10 %, to 151.1 million tons.

Logistical Labyrinth & Rail Reliance

Poundrik flagged rail congestion in crucial steel regions like Odisha and Karnataka as a potential bottleneck. India's heavy dependency on rail to transport imported coal underscores the challenge of meeting rising demands, especially with ports like Mundra and Dhamra nearing capacity crunch.

Global Grain Game & Indian Imbalances

The dip in supply from Australia and the US has prompted India to explore alternatives. In recent months, coking coal imports from Russia, Indonesia, and Mozambique have surged. Diversification is seen as essential to stabilise supply chains and reduce price vulnerabilities amid geopolitical strain.

Import Implications & Industrial Imperatives

India currently imports around 85 % of its coking coal needs, about 58 million metric tons in FY 2025. With rising steel output and capacity, that figure is expected to grow substantially. Without urgent logistic upgrades, additional imports risk slowing production cycles and raising costs.

Policy Pathways & Performance Pressures

To ensure stable coal flow, the government may need to incentivise rail and port expansions. Creating strategic reserves, setting diversified import agreements, as seen with Mongolia via Russia, and improving inland connectivity are vital steps to avoid industrial supply chain disruptions .

Outlook & Operational Opportunities

India faces a turning point. With steel capacity rising and coking coal imports inching upward, the next two years will test logistical infrastructure and policy agility. Success in expanding port throughput and rail freight will determine both steel sector competitiveness and India’s ability to meet its climate and industrial goals.

Key Takeaways:

• India’s coking coal imports rose by 1 % in April–June FY 2025‑26, with June volume at 4.953 million metric tons.

• Steel Secretary projects imports must reach 160 million tons by 2030, as domestic steel capacity expands to 300 million tons.

• Supply shifts from Australia and US highlight the need for import diversification and logistics improvements amid rail congestion.