ENERGY

Crude Conundrum: Ceasefire Calms, Cartel Cues & Trump's Tentative Thaw Tangle Trade

WTI Crude Oil Plummets Amid Middle East Detente & OPEC+ Dynamics

WTI crude oil futures slumped to approximately $65.1 per barrel on Monday, a precipitous descent that capped the sharpest weekly decline in over two years. The previous week saw crude tumble more than 11%, the most calamitous contraction since March 2023—driven by an abrupt abatement in geopolitical angst across the Middle East.

Tranquility in Tension: Israel-Iran Ceasefire Eases Risk Premium

The détente between Israel & Iran has engendered a discernible unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium long embedded in energy prices. The US-brokered truce, although tenuous, has thus far forestalled the feared conflagration that many had warned could jeopardize critical crude corridors traversing the region.

Despite the prevailing calm, Iranian officials have voiced skepticism regarding the ceasefire’s durability. Tehran's rhetoric remains bellicose, asserting unequivocally that any resumption of hostilities will be met with swift retaliation, injecting a note of volatility into an otherwise softened market narrative.

Trump’s Tentative Overture: Sanctions Relief Not Off the Table

In a development of considerable diplomatic nuance, former President Donald Trump intimated potential openness to sanctions relief for Iran, contingent upon the regime’s pacific comportment. This speculative shift in US foreign policy posture, were it to materialize, could herald the return of substantial Iranian barrels to global markets, further exacerbating the prevailing supply overhang.

OPEC+ Adjusts Output: August Augments July Additions

Overlaying the geopolitical developments is a material shift in supply-side fundamentals. Reports suggest OPEC+ is poised to amplify production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, echoing a similar augmentation already scheduled for July. This increment, while moderate, reflects a broader recalibration in the cartel’s strategic calculus, one that privileges market share preservation over price support.

The oil alliance's decision appears to be calibrated against tepid demand projections & replenishing inventories, with member nations increasingly wary of ceding market ground to non-OPEC producers.

Trade Tempest Looms: July 9 Deadline Drives Uncertainty

Further muddying the waters is the specter of escalating trade friction. The Trump administration’s July 9 deadline for finalizing critical trade accords looms large, engendering a cloud of commercial uncertainty that could further sap energy demand forecasts. Market participants remain watchful of potential tariff escalations or breakdowns in negotiations that might throttle global growth & oil consumption trajectories.

Gas Glut & Geopolitics: Europe's Energy Equilibrium Ensnared by Eddying Events

European Natural Gas Futures Slide Amid Supply Surge & Solar Surfeit

European natural gas futures plunged below €34 per megawatt-hour this week, the nadir in nearly a month, under the confluence of copious supply, subdued demand & transient geopolitical tranquility. The market's downward drift reflects a complex interplay of climatic, infrastructural & diplomatic variables that have temporarily tranquilised volatility across the continent's energy ecosystem.

Truce Tempers Tensions: Middle East Mellowing Lowers Risk Premium

A ceasefire between Israel & Iran continues to hold, deflating immediate apprehensions of supply-chain sabotage or maritime disruptions in key energy corridors. The cessation of hostilities has calmed speculative fervour, stripping away the geopolitical froth that had buoyed gas prices in prior weeks.

This relative pacification, however, remains precarious. As Iran voices mistrust in the longevity of the ceasefire, any deviation could swiftly reignite anxieties across global energy markets, particularly in liquefied natural gas (LNG) routes.

Nordic Nourishment: Norway’s Output Ramps Up

Simultaneously, Norway, Europe’s second-largest gas supplier after Russia—has ramped up exports to the continent. This bolstered flow comes at an opportune moment, ensuring storage buffers remain robust ahead of the less predictable autumn season. The steady influx from Norway has provided a vital backstop to potential supply shocks, especially amid concerns about future Russian volumes.

Wind & Wattage: Renewable Resilience Dampens Demand

Demand from gas-fired power plants has plummeted as Europe witnesses an unseasonably vigorous spell of wind & solar output. Renewable generation has consistently surpassed seasonal norms, diminishing reliance on thermal sources for electricity production. This meteorological munificence has been instrumental in compressing gas consumption across multiple member states.

However, forecasts suggest that wind & solar output may revert to average levels by next week, potentially nudging gas demand marginally higher, though likely not enough to significantly alter current bearish sentiment.

Infrastructure Interlude: French LNG Maintenance Looms

Market participants are also bracing for reduced LNG send-out from north-west Europe, as French LNG terminals undergo scheduled maintenance. While not unexpected, this temporary infrastructural constraint may modestly limit short-term supply flexibility, especially if colder weather or industrial demand unexpectedly resurfaces.

Nonetheless, Europe's storage levels remain relatively healthy, assuaging immediate concerns over systemic shortages.

Slovak Sabre-Rattling: Sanctions Saga Adds Political Complexity

On the political front, Slovakia has emerged as a dissenting voice in the European Union's evolving sanctions narrative. Bratislava has threatened to block the bloc’s proposed post-2027 sanctions package on Russian gas unless its concerns over long-term supply security are addressed. This diplomatic divergence underscores the variegated energy dependencies across EU member states, complicating efforts to present a unified front on Russia.

The Slovak stance injects a potent dose of political uncertainty into what is already a labyrinthine energy landscape, where national prerogatives frequently collide with collective ambitions.

Coal’s Capricious Climb: China’s Stockpile Strategy Spurs Short-Term Surge

Newcastle Coal Futures Rebound to 4-Month High on Asian Demand Revival

Newcastle coal futures ascended to $106 per metric ton in June, marking their highest level in four months. This uptick represents a significant yet tentative reversal after prices had sunk to a four-year trough of $93.7 in late April. The recovery, while modest in magnitude, reveals the subtle interplay of demand dynamics, policy cues & shifting supply fundamentals, particularly emanating from the Asia-Pacific region.

Asian Appetite Awakens: Imports from China & India Rekindle Demand

Seaborne imports of thermal coal by China & India, the world’s two largest consumers, rose to a five-month zenith in May. This resurgence in maritime coal inflows reflects strategic restocking ahead of peak seasonal consumption. China, in particular, appears to be opportunistically accumulating inventory, following an advisory from its state planner urging power plants to replenish domestic coal stockpiles by 10% to capitalise on subdued market prices.

India's import appetite was similarly buoyed by anticipatory procurement ahead of the monsoon season, when domestic mining often slows & hydropower generation becomes erratic. This bolstered import data has provided a vital floor to global coal prices, which remain structurally depressed by broader oversupply.

Yearly Weakness Persists: Prices Still Down Over 15% in 2025

Despite the recent rally, front-month Newcastle contracts remain more than 15% lower year-on-year, underscoring the persistent imbalance between supply & demand. The broader downtrend is anchored in a confluence of factors: declining fossil fuel usage, expanding renewable capacity, & ample domestic output, especially in China.

This structural weakness continues to temper bullish sentiment, making the recent upswing appear more tactical than transformative.

Power Generation Shifts: Fossil Fuel Output Faces Renewable Headwinds

China’s fossil-fuel-based power output contracted by 4.7% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting both weaker aggregate power demand & the rising contribution of renewable energy sources. The proliferation of solar & wind installations has displaced a notable share of coal-fired generation, eroding the domestic need for thermal coal despite continued industrial reliance.

However, the seasonal variability of renewables still necessitates a reliable baseload buffer, explaining China's pragmatic push to maintain coal stockpile sufficiency even as it champions green energy.

Supply Still Stout: China’s Output Expansion Adds Downward Pressure

On the supply side, China’s domestic coal production in May increased by 4% compared to the prior year. This aligns seamlessly with Beijing’s 2025 production target, a 1.5% increase that would raise annual output to 4.82 billion metric tons, building on 2024’s record production. This surge is designed to ensure energy security amid geopolitical unpredictability & to preempt any import dependency.

This abundant domestic output remains a key suppressor of global prices, even as seaborne markets flirt with short-term bullish cues. It reinforces the notion that any upward price movement may be ephemeral unless supported by durable shifts in demand or major supply disruptions

INPUT MATERIALS

Iron’s Immaculate Incline: Inventory Implosion & Illusive Incentives Ignite Interest

Iron Ore Futures Climb to One-Month High Amid Tight Stocks & Policy Hopes

Iron ore futures surged to approximately CNY 718 per metric ton on Friday, reaching their highest level in a month as dwindling inventories & macroeconomic tailwinds reinvigorated bullish sentiment in the market. The rally marks a welcome reprieve for traders after a recent slump, driven by a confluence of tighter physical fundamentals, speculative positioning & hopeful anticipation of policy stimulus from Beijing.

Port Paucity: Chinese Inventories Fall to Multi-Month Lows

Fresh data from industry monitors revealed that iron ore stockpiles at major Chinese ports fell to 133.6 million metric tons, reflecting a persistent drawdown that has now become a source of price support. The depletion is seen as a combination of steady steel mill consumption, reduced arrivals from overseas suppliers & logistical bottlenecks in key coastal hubs.

In tandem, steel inventories have declined for a seventh consecutive week, signaling healthy downstream offtake & reinforcing expectations of resilient demand during the summer construction season.

Steel Curbs Spark Sentiment: Environmental Mandates Resurface

Beijing’s intermittent imposition of steel production curbs, primarily motivated by environmental compliance, has paradoxically buoyed iron ore sentiment. While these curbs cap total steel output, they are also viewed as a sign of underlying demand strength: authorities typically enforce them during high-utilisation periods to restrain emissions without extinguishing industrial momentum.

Such regulatory ambiguity offers room for speculative optimism, as traders bet on episodic supply constraints driving short-term price gains.

Dollar Doldrums: Greenback Weakness Fuels Commodity Demand

On the global macro front, the US dollar weakened to a 3½-year low amid mounting expectations of deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. This depreciation has strengthened the purchasing power of non-dollar buyers, particularly in Asia, where iron ore is a key industrial input. Dollar-denominated commodities like iron ore naturally become more attractive when the greenback slides, incentivising cross-border buying & inventory replenishment.

Politburo Prognostications: All Eyes on July Meeting

Looking ahead, market attention is increasingly fixated on the upcoming July Politburo meeting in China, where investors anticipate potential signals of more robust fiscal or monetary stimulus. After a tepid first half marked by uneven recovery across sectors, there is mounting pressure on policymakers to unveil tangible measures that can accelerate infrastructure investment, bolster property markets & galvanise commodity-intensive demand.

Any perceptible pivot towards growth-enhancing policies would likely inject fresh momentum into iron ore markets, further narrowing inventories & lifting price expectations.

Met Coal Malaise: Marginal Moves, Muted Markets & Macroeconomic Muddles Persist

Metallurgical Coal Markets Stagnate Amid Tepid Demand & Abundant Offers

Metallurgical coal prices across Asia & the Atlantic basin continued their downward drift in the week ending June 20, as lacklustre buying interest, ample supply & broader macroeconomic uncertainties weighed heavily on sentiment. Both spot & contract markets showed signs of inertia, with most buyers remaining on the sidelines despite competitive offers from sellers, particularly in the second-tier segment.

Asia: Anemic Appetite Amid Ample Availability

Platts assessed premium low-vol hard coking coal at $175.40/metric ton FOB Australia on June 20, down $1/mt day over day. The CFR China assessment for the same grade remained steady at $157.50/mt, underscoring subdued transactional activity despite slight pricing concessions.

Market participants reported no major deal activity, even after offers of both Australian PLV & Chinese PLV were extended to North Asian end-users. Sellers voiced frustration at the absence of counterbids: "We offered at very competitive levels, but they did not buy from us," said one supplier.

An indicative offer for an 80,000-metric ton cargo of Australian PLV (Oaky North), slated for early July loading, persisted at $170/mt FOB Australia, a level that failed to elicit much interest from buyers across India & China.

Sentiment in India remained especially bleak. Traders cited the dual drag of a monsoon-induced slowdown & weak steel demand, while Indian steelmakers complained of oversupply pressures stemming from Chinese & Canadian PLV cargoes flooding the market.

China: Coke Cuts & Cautious Buying Continue to Suppress Prices

Chinese coking coal markets remained under pressure, weighed down by a fourth consecutive round of coke price cuts initiated by mills in North China. Reductions of Yuan 50–55/mt have dampened domestic coal prices, creating additional headwinds for seaborne imports.

Portside trading was sparse. Small parcels of Canadian low-vol Elkview coal traded at Yuan 1,150/mt ex-stock, while Australian PMV Goonyella C offers at Yuan 1,180/mt saw minimal traction. Platts assessed PLV ex-stock Jingtang down Yuan 10/mt to Yuan 1,180/mt (approximately $143.03/mt CFR Jingtang), while low-vol HCC held steady at Yuan 1,110/mt ($133.31/mt CFR Jingtang).

Despite weakening prices, resistance to coke price reductions emerged among some Chinese cokeries, especially as futures markets remained firm & hot metal production stayed high. A supplier noted, “There are still some uncertainties whether this round of cuts will be concluded next Monday.”

Second-Tier Struggles: Canadian HCC Under Pressure

In the lower-tier metallurgical coal segment, Canadian HCC cargoes continued to saturate the market. Conuma cargoes—such as an 80,000-metric ton lot for late July loading, were offered at $128/mt FOB Canada. Despite multiple sellers engaging Northeast Asian end-users, no deals were reported by market close in Singapore.

A Chinese seller encapsulated the prevailing mood: “We are struggling to sell,” citing persistent apathy among buyers.

Even as some end-users considered these offers, the widespread availability of Canadian & Chinese cargoes diluted urgency, with oversupply continuing to suppress second-tier pricing.

Atlantic Basin: Sluggish Spot Demand, Stable Supply

Atlantic met coal markets mirrored the Asian malaise. Platts assessed US low-vol hard coking coal at $176.50/mt FOB US East Coast on June 20, down $1/mt over the week. High-vol A & B grades followed suit, assessed at $166/mt and $154/mt respectively—both down 50 cents/mt from the prior day.

Despite reports of index-linked offers for August-loading cargoes, actual deal flow remained minimal. Some US miners reported being sold out for the remainder of the year, though this did little to tighten spot supply due to the active presence of trader-held cargoes in the market.

A European end-user observed: “Some traders probably took positions from miners and hence there is spot availability. Therefore, the market is oversupplied.”

India: Waiting on Policy, Watching the Weather

In India, market stagnation was exacerbated by policy uncertainty. Participants cited the lack of clarity on potential changes to met coke import quotas as a key deterrent to fresh purchases. The seasonal slowdown from monsoon rains added to the torpor, with little incentive to lock in forward cargoes amid softening domestic steel margins.

Scrap Stasis & Steel Swoon: Taiwan's Tepid Trade Tempers Transpacific Tonnage

Imported Scrap Markets Subdued as Steel Demand & Trade Outlook Wane

The Asian ferrous scrap market, particularly in Taiwan, showed marked inertia this week, reflecting a confluence of muted downstream steel demand, wavering procurement appetite & persistent geopolitical uncertainty. With benchmark prices plateauing & transaction volumes dwindling, the market remains caught in a liminal phase of wait-and-watch.

Turkey Benchmarks: Futures Hint at Fragile Firmness

As of this week, the benchmark import price for HMS 1&2 (80:20, CFR Turkey) hovered near US $342 per metric ton. Forward curves suggest a marginal uptick, with July delivery pricing projected at $345–346/mt, a tentative signal of optimism, though far from emphatic.

Turkey, traditionally a bellwether for global scrap sentiment, appears to be in a holding pattern, mirroring broader macroeconomic hesitation. While not outright bearish, the lack of upward momentum underscores global fragility in the steelmaking value chain.

Taiwan: Rebar Reticence Dampens Demand

Taiwan’s imported scrap market remains subdued, with sentiment deteriorating further as domestic rebar demand continues its downward drift. Containerised HMS 1&2 (80:20) offers from the US West Coast held steady in the $295–300/mt CFR Taiwan range. Yet, this stability proved illusory, transactional appetite faded as buyers recalibrated bids down to $290/mt CFR or lower.

Deals concluded at $295/mt CFR in the prior week no longer found traction, as steel mills grew increasingly circumspect, citing lacklustre construction activity & limited forward visibility.

The steel sector’s slowdown has had a direct depressive effect on procurement, with buyers hesitant to restock in a declining price environment. Traders noted growing inventories at mills, suggesting limited upside unless demand fundamentals shift materially.

Japan: Premium Persistence But Limited Participation

Japanese H1:H2 (50:50) scrap offers also remained anchored at $315–320/mt CFR Taiwan, yet bids failed to bridge the gap, holding firm around $310/mt CFR. This bid-offer divergence reflects a broader pricing misalignment in the Asia-Pacific scrap corridor.

The premium commanded by Japanese cargoes over US-origin material has restrained trade flow, despite the relative quality consistency of Japanese grades. Taiwanese mills, particularly those operating on tight margins, have shown a clear preference for competitively priced US containerised scrap, further stalling Japanese sales.

Regional Snapshot: Currency, Trade Policy & Macroeconomic Malaise

Market participants pointed to broader concerns that continue to cloud procurement decisions. Chief among them are currency fluctuations & potential adjustments to global trade policies, especially those involving key exporters like the US & Japan.

The lack of resolution on various trade fronts, coupled with dovish outlooks for construction & infrastructure spending in East Asia, has contributed to a conservative procurement strategy among mills. As sellers hold offers firm, and buyers lower bids, the market has entered a stalemate that could persist into early Q3 unless catalysed by stimulus, weather disruptions, or raw material volatility.

CHINA

Rebar Rut & Retrenchment: Recalcitrant Rates Reflect Redundant Real Estate Ripple

Chinese Steel Rebar Futures Flatline as Demand Dissipates & Tariffs Tighten

Steel rebar futures in China lingered near CNY 2,950 per metric ton this week, meandering within a tight band after bottoming out at a nine-month low of CNY 2,920 on June 13. The prevailing torpor underscores the complex interplay of weakening domestic demand, rising geopolitical headwinds & tentative supply-side recalibrations.

Demand Doldrums: Construction Slows Amid Real Estate Redundancy

At the heart of the current stagnation lies a palpable erosion of construction momentum. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China’s construction Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to a four-month low in May, indicating contraction in a sector that remains a primary driver of rebar consumption.

The chronic oversupply of housing stock, particularly in lower-tier cities, has sapped appetite for new residential projects, rendering seasonal summer slowdowns more acute. Property developers remain hesitant to break ground amid weak presales & tighter credit access, leaving steel mills bereft of fresh demand channels.

Trade Tensions: Tariff Tremors Reshape Regional Steel Dynamics

Exacerbating the softness in domestic demand is a resurgence of global protectionism targeting Chinese steel exports. The United States recently escalated its trade posture, doubling tariffs on Chinese steel imports to a steep 50%. This aggressive stance has curtailed overseas shipments and redirected unsold inventory back into regional markets, contributing to an oversupply glut across major Asian hubs.

This confluence of trade friction & demand deflation has weighed heavily on market sentiment. Mills that once relied on stable export corridors now face a saturated domestic market, making price support increasingly difficult to sustain.

Supply-Side Solace: Beijing Hints at Production Curtailment

In a bid to restore equilibrium, Chinese authorities have signaled intentions to curb steel output in the second half of the year. Key producers, including Baosteel, have announced plans to cut production by up to 50 million metric tons, echoing Beijing’s longstanding ambition to consolidate the steel sector and align production with realistic demand trajectories.

These curtailments, while potentially supportive in the medium term, have yet to make a meaningful dent in current inventories. Traders remain sceptical about the speed & scale of implementation, especially in the absence of clearer downstream recovery signals.

Iron Ore Influx: Australian Exports Rebound Post-Weather Disruption

On the raw materials front, iron ore supply has rebounded robustly. Exports from Australia’s Port Hedland surged in May, making up for weather-induced shortfalls earlier this year. The return of stable outbound volumes from one of the world’s largest iron ore terminals adds another layer of pressure to Chinese steel margins, as mills contend with raw material availability that is outpacing finished product demand.

While falling iron ore prices could potentially reduce production costs, their impact on rebar futures remains muted in the current demand-constrained environment.

SEA

Vietnam’s Volte-Face on Wide-Width: HRC Hedging Amidst Hypothetical Harmonisation

Weekly Analysis: Vietnamese Buyers Revive Appetite for Chinese Wide-Width HRC as Anti-Dumping Ambiguities Persist

Vietnam’s hot rolled coil import market saw a notable pivot this past week as buyers re-engaged with Chinese suppliers, particularly for wide-width material, amid evolving regulatory ambiguity & shifting trade strategy. While the standard-width segment remained relatively inert, wide-width HRC emerged as the focal point of commercial interest, navigating the legal lacuna surrounding provisional duties & market monitoring.

Wide-Width Winds Shift: Regulatory Relief Revives Trade

Interest in wide-width Chinese HRC (above 1,880mm) surged following the circulation of a draft conclusion report on Vietnam’s ongoing anti-dumping investigation. The document notably excluded wide-width HRC from the scope of imminent trade measures, providing a temporary reprieve that buyers quickly capitalised on.

In a market previously chilled by provisional anti-dumping duties imposed in February, this clarification ignited a fresh wave of purchasing. Vietnamese buyers, sensing an opportunity to circumvent duties through technical classification, ramped up orders for wide-width material, particularly the 2,000mm width Q235 grade.

Deals for 3–12mm thick Chinese HRC of this specification for August shipment were heard concluded around $450 per metric ton CFR Vietnam. One trader reported approximately 50,000 metric tons of such material booked between June 24–25, with market chatter suggesting the total could climb to 80,000 metric tons. However, Chinese mills were quick to react, nudging offer levels up to $455/mt CFR Vietnam by Friday.

Domestic Vigilance: Authorities Mull Monitoring over Mandates

Despite the current regulatory loophole, Vietnam’s Trade Remedies Authority submitted a proposal to the Customs Department advocating for enhanced surveillance of HRC exceeding 1,880mm in width. While no punitive action has yet been announced, the language hints at a potential circumvention probe that would require new petitions & evidentiary support from domestic producers.

This regulatory haze has injected short-term urgency into procurement decisions. Buyers are front-loading purchases ahead of any possible investigative expansion that could rope in wide-width material under the same trade remedy umbrella.

Southeast Asian Supply Offers Little Relief

Elsewhere, offers from regional suppliers, particularly Indonesia, remained uncompetitive for many Vietnamese importers. One Indonesian mill floated offers for 3mm base thickness SAE1006/SS400 HRC at $480–490/mt FOB, translating to $500–510/mt CFR Vietnam. Buyers, however, are bidding at lower levels of $470–475/mt FOB, creating an impasse that has stalled negotiations.

Another trader reported a softer quote of $490/mt CFR Vietnam for September shipment from the same mill, but this too was met with restrained interest, as buyers continued to prioritise opportunistic bookings from China under the current regulatory grace.

Market Sentiment: Strategic, Not Structural, Confidence

Traders say confidence in wide-width procurement is rising, not due to underlying demand strength but because of regulatory arbitrage. With construction activity still facing headwinds & domestic rebar demand subdued, mills remain cautious. Still, the possibility of skirting duties, however temporary, has brought Chinese HRC back into contention for Vietnamese importers navigating an increasingly convoluted trade terrain.

EUROPE

Coil Conundrum & Continental Contraction: Europe's HRC Crumbles Amid Craven Demand

European HRC Prices Plunge as Demand Dwindles, Imports Intensify & Iron Ore Falters

Hot-rolled coil prices in Europe persisted in their precipitous descent through the final week of June, mirroring an industrial malaise fuelled by enervated demand, opportunistic import offers & easing raw material costs. The continental steel market continues to wrestle with post-pandemic inertia, geopolitical uncertainty & cyclical summer stagnation.

Northern Europe: Prices Spiral as Sellers Surrender on Premiums

Fastmarkets’ daily index for domestic HRC, ex-works Northern Europe, slid to €566.25 per metric ton ($658.22) on June 26, down €7.50 from the previous day’s €573.75/mt. The pricing corridor widened, with workable levels cited between €550–570/mt ex-works—down from the prior day’s €560–580/mt range.

One Northern European seller conceded that €580/mt is now “unattainable,” a remark emblematic of the structural erosion in price resilience. Despite falling revenue, some mills have paradoxically preserved margins, benefitting from the sharp retreat in iron ore prices—a dynamic that has cushioned cost pressures even as demand contracts.

Fastmarkets’ benchmark for 62% Fe iron ore fines, CFR Qingdao, fell to $92.32/mt on June 26, down significantly from $97.27/mt just a month earlier, reflecting both weakening Chinese consumption & global oversupply concerns.

Italy: Industrial Inertia Reaches Historic Depths

The Italian HRC market remained equally subdued, if not more so. Sources described demand as “the weakest in two decades,” surpassing even the nadir of the COVID-era slump. No significant transactions were reported on June 26, though market indications placed workable prices at €530–550/mt ex-works, with variations based on order size.

Small-tonnage offers hovered at €540/mt and above, while bulk purchases were possible around €530–540/mt ex-works. Fastmarkets’ index for domestic HRC in Italy settled at €540.63/mt on June 26, marking a €6.03 daily drop.

This consistent deterioration has left Italian mills navigating a fragile pricing floor, with cost coverage becoming increasingly tenuous in the absence of structural demand catalysts.

Imports: Asian & Turkish Tonnage Tighten the Screws

Compounding the challenge for European producers is a fresh wave of competitively priced imports from Southeast Asia & Turkey. Indonesian HRC for August shipment was offered at €470–480/mt ex-works, dramatically undercutting domestic rates.

Turkish offers were also aggressive, with small-tonnage orders quoted at €525–530/mt CFR duty-paid. Notably, large-volume deals (20,000 metric tons or more) could be secured at even lower rates, €500–510/mt duty-paid, undermining any nascent hopes of price stabilization in the domestic market.

HRC from Vietnam & Thailand was similarly attractively priced, with offers in the €510–515/mt CFR Italy range, further tightening the margin for domestic mills already squeezed between falling demand & collapsing price discipline.

Structural Weakness: Demand Depletion, Not Just Seasonal Slump

While seasonal slowdown is a recurring feature of European steel markets in summer, this year’s weakness appears far more entrenched. End-use sectors, particularly automotive, construction & white goods, remain languid, grappling with high financing costs, inventory overhang & broader macroeconomic unease across the Eurozone.

Steel service centres are reluctant to restock, citing a lack of downstream visibility. This buyer hesitancy, combined with a surfeit of imported alternatives, has eroded any semblance of pricing power among regional mills