ENERGY

Speculative Surge & Subtle Sentiment: WTI Crude’s Spirited Sojourn

Crude Oil fell to 68.59 USD/Bbl on July 14, 2025, down 0.23% from the previous day. Over the past month, prices have slipped 2.36%, marking a 16.26% decline year-on-year, according to trading on CFDs mirroring benchmark markets. The week saw speculative fervour in WTI Crude, with futures peaking near 68.000 USD, bolstered by signs of a potentially resilient U.S economy.

Speculative Higher Ground & Steady Support

WTI Crude Oil began last week around 64.700 in CFD markets before an assertive ascent brought it to nearly 67.400 by late Monday. As trading matured, familiar oscillations between support & resistance unfolded, but notably, WTI maintained gains through to the weekend. Thursday & Friday witnessed buyers defending the 65.500 threshold, reflecting a guarded optimism that speculative sentiment still holds sway. Early trading in the upcoming week will likely reveal whether this confidence persists.

Economic Undercurrents & Market Momentum

Despite recent U.S GDP data painting a pallid picture, lower inflation & brighter consumer sentiment offer whispers of economic fortitude. The stronger-than-anticipated jobs data on July 3 added credence to optimism. This blend of factors appears to encourage speculative buyers who foresee rising demand, especially if economic signals continue aligning positively. Yet, the presence of ample supply tempers runaway enthusiasm, keeping prices tethered within a recognisable band.

Futures, Spot & Subtle Disparities

An intriguing divergence surfaced between futures & cash market prices. While CFD futures hovered around 67.400 to 68.000, the spot price edged closer to 69.000 USD, hinting at latent near-term demand. Traders navigating between spot & futures must remain vigilant, as each reflects subtly different market sentiments shaped by immediate delivery needs versus longer-term speculation.

Forecast Framed by Fundamentals & Fervour

Analysts suggest a speculative range of 65.400 to 68.700 for WTI Crude Oil this week. Should early trading breach the 66.000 mark yet quickly attract buyers, it may indicate robust sentiment & potential for modest upward moves. Conversely, if speculative momentum falters, revisiting lower levels wouldn’t be unexpected. The week’s inflation data & Retail Sales figures will serve as pivotal markers shaping both perception & price.

Strategic Caution & Tactical Trades

Day traders are counselled to temper ambition: the 66.000 to 68.500 zone could emerge as a pragmatic proving ground rather than a launchpad for outsized gains. As support levels have incrementally strengthened, testing these points may reveal whether speculative appetite retains its edge. Yet, the delicate dance between optimism & oversupply continues to dictate the pace.

Metric Mindset & Market Musings

Prices remain historically modest, offering manufacturers & consumers a measure of reprieve. Last week’s climb, while spirited, was anchored in cautious confidence rather than euphoria. With speculative sentiment and fundamental data delicately balanced, WTI Crude Oil enters the new week poised between promise & prudence.

Key Takeaways:

• WTI Crude Oil futures rose near 68.000 USD amid speculative optimism.

• Spot price surpassed futures, indicating near-term demand strength.

• U.S economic signals, better jobs data, softer inflation, bolstered sentiment.

• Analysts forecast a speculative price band of 65.400 to 68.700.

• Day traders advised to watch for buying support near 66.000 as an indicator.

Sultry Summers & Strategic Storage: Surging Sentiment in European Gas

European TTF natural gas futures climbed to €35/MWh, the highest in two weeks, driven by forecasts of sustained heatwaves & stable supply outlooks. Warmer-than-average weather follows the hottest June ever recorded in Western Europe, where land & sea temperatures soared past historic norms. Meanwhile, the European Parliament’s relaxed storage deadlines eased fears of inflated prices, & TotalEnergies voiced confidence in phasing out Russian LNG by 2028, balancing supply & geopolitical tensions.

Sweltering Heat & Spiking Prices

European gas markets felt the scorch of climatic extremities, as TTF natural gas futures surged to €35/MWh. This rally mirrors weather forecasts predicting elevated temperatures across the continent, following June’s record-breaking heat that saw Western Europe sizzle above 38°C. Intensified by unprecedented sea warmth in the western Mediterranean, the heatwave has heightened cooling demand, lifting futures to a two-week peak.

Legislative Leeway & Market Moderation

In Brussels, the European Parliament offered relief by approving more flexible gas storage rules. Countries now have until December to fulfil the 90% storage mandate, a strategic shift intended to curb speculative fears of winter shortages & sudden price spikes. This legislative leniency could soothe market anxieties, helping temper volatility during peak demand months.

Strategic Supply Shifts & LNG Liberation

TotalEnergies’ CEO outlined a vision of energy independence, projecting that Europe could dispense with Russian LNG entirely by 2028. This forecast hinges on fresh liquefaction capacity from the US & Qatar, fortifying supply chains & diversifying import portfolios. The declaration reassures markets of future resilience even as geopolitical uncertainties persist.

Trade Tensions & Growth Gloom

Amid optimism, a note of caution emerged from warnings about possible trade frictions under a Trump presidency. Higher US tariffs could restrain economic momentum, indirectly pressuring industrial gas demand. While gasoline supply appears secure, the spectre of tariff-induced slowdowns lingers over growth projections, adding a subtle counterweight to bullish sentiment.

Forecasts Framed by Furnace-Like Heat

Looking ahead, continued meteorological extremes are likely to sustain elevated price levels. Coupled with tempered storage timelines & strategic supply shifts, European natural gas markets find themselves balanced between weather-driven demand & policy-driven calm. The next week promises persistent heat, testing both infrastructure & market patience.

Key Takeaways:

• European TTF gas futures rose to €35/MWh on heatwave-driven demand.

• Western Europe recorded June temperatures exceeding 38°C alongside record sea warmth.

• European Parliament eased gas storage deadlines, lowering price spike risks.

• TotalEnergies expects Europe to replace Russian LNG by 2028 via US & Qatari supply.

• Trade tensions under President Trump could curb growth & dampen industrial gas demand.

Tariffs, Tonnage & Tepid Trade: Thermal Coal’s Tenuous Trajectory

Newcastle thermal coal futures slipped below $110 per metric ton after a short-lived rebound to $112.5 on July 2nd. Investors reassessed the market as oversupply concerns deepened, driven by China’s higher domestic production & softer fossil-fuel power output. The spectre of renewed tariffs on South Korea & Japan also weighed on sentiment, while seaborne imports to India & China reached a five-month peak, tempering sharper declines.

Faltering Futures & Fragile Optimism

After climbing to $112.5 per metric ton earlier in July, Newcastle thermal coal futures retraced, settling below $110. This pullback reflects renewed investor caution, as signs of oversupply counterbalance recent price strength. Despite seasonal demand, traders remain wary, questioning the sustainability of previous gains against a backdrop of ample availability.

Trade Tensions & Import Impediments

Market sentiment cooled further amid speculation of reimposed tariffs targeting key importers South Korea & Japan. These nations typically source higher-grade thermal coal from Newcastle, so potential trade barriers pose risks to established flows. Such geopolitical undercurrents add layers of unpredictability to a market already navigating cyclical shifts.

China’s Domestic Drive & Demand Dynamics

China’s domestic production rose by 4% year-on-year in May, supporting Beijing’s ambition to lift annual output by 1.5% to 4.82 billion metric tons in 2025 after last year’s record levels. Simultaneously, the nation’s fossil-fuel power output fell 4.7% in Q1, reflecting cooling demand & rising renewable contributions. This twin trend of higher local output & softer consumption exerts downward pressure on import reliance.

Import Inflows & Regional Resilience

Contrasting domestic headwinds, seaborne imports of thermal coal into India & China hit a five-month high in May. This uptick suggests steady demand resilience from Asia’s largest consumers, partially cushioning global prices from steeper corrections. However, analysts warn that sustained oversupply may still cap further rallies.

Outlook Shaped by Supply & Subtle Shifts

The Newcastle thermal coal market stands delicately poised between geopolitical uncertainty, robust domestic production & evolving demand patterns. While near-term imports provide price support, structural oversupply & trade tensions continue to shadow sentiment. As investors weigh these shifting variables, volatility remains the defining feature of the coming weeks.

Key Takeaways:

• Newcastle thermal coal futures eased below $110 per metric ton after peaking at $112.5.

• Possible tariffs on South Korea & Japan darkened the outlook for higher-grade exports.

• China’s domestic coal production rose 4%, aiming for 4.82 billion metric tons this year.

• Chinese fossil-fuel power output dropped by 4.7% in Q1 amid rising renewable use.

• Seaborne imports to India & China climbed to a five-month high in May, softening price declines.

INPUT MATERIALS

Stimulus Speculation & Shrinking Supply: Steel-Spurred Surge in Iron Ore

Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 767 ($107) per metric ton on Friday, reaching a three-month peak. The rally reflects market hopes that Beijing may introduce new stimulus for the faltering property sector, supported by reports of a possible high-level policy meeting akin to the 2015 Central Urban Work Conference. Simultaneously, falling shipments from Australia & Brazil reinforced supply concerns, while efforts to curb steel overcapacity & counter deflationary pressures added to bullish sentiment.

Stimulus Signals & Speculative Strength

Iron ore markets experienced renewed momentum as traders anticipated fresh policy support from Beijing to revive the weakened property sector. Reports hint at a potential top-level conference focused on accelerating urban infrastructure & development, mirroring past efforts that spurred economic activity. This speculation fuelled optimism for stronger steel demand, given the property sector's significant role in driving construction & related industries.

Steel Sector Strategy & Structural Shifts

Beyond immediate stimulus, Beijing’s ongoing push to reduce industrial overcapacity, especially in the steel industry, reflects a broader strategy to rebalance supply & demand. This aligns with measures aimed at combating persistent deflationary trends & bolstering domestic consumption. Traders see these interventions as dual support: stabilising prices by limiting excess production & encouraging demand through targeted investment.

Tariff Troubles & Trade Tensions

Market sentiment also reflects caution around geopolitical pressures, notably US tariffs that risk dampening broader Chinese economic momentum. While these tariffs add complexity to growth forecasts, the combined weight of domestic policy support & supply limitations has so far outweighed bearish trade concerns.

Constrained Cargoes & Contracted Flows

On the supply side, iron ore shipments from key exporters Australia & Brazil to China have steadily declined. This tightening flow adds another layer of support to prices, as traders weigh falling seaborne supply against potential demand spikes from infrastructure-led stimulus. Reduced imports create a backdrop of scarcity, amplifying price sensitivity to even modest shifts in demand.

Prospects Poised Between Policy & Production

Looking ahead, iron ore’s trajectory will hinge on the balance between stimulus-driven demand & constrained supply. Beijing’s policy clarity remains a central factor, as traders await confirmation of whether speculation translates into concrete action. Until then, iron ore markets remain buoyed by the interplay of shrinking global supply & hopes for renewed domestic demand.

Key Takeaways:

• Iron ore futures rose above CNY 767 ($107) per metric ton, a three-month high.

• Market optimism driven by possible new stimulus to revive China’s property sector.

• Beijing continues curbing steel overcapacity to fight deflation & support demand.

• Shipments from Australia & Brazil to China declined, tightening global supply.

• US tariffs add uncertainty, but supply limits & stimulus hopes sustain price strength.

Tariffs, Tepid Trades & Tumultuous Trends: Traversing Asia’s Met Coal Maze

Asian metallurgical coal prices slipped marginally last week, shaped by subdued buying, ample supply & shifting Chinese sentiment. Premium Low-Vol Hard Coking Coal fell to $177/mt FOB Australia, while delivered China prices edged up to $161/mt amid improved trading. Meanwhile, Chinese cokeries proposed domestic coke price hikes after prior cuts, & US high-vol A met coal weakened to $157/mt FOB USEC on slower summer demand & looming tariff tensions.

Asia’s Anemic Appetite & Ample Availability

Market activity in Asia remained restrained, as buyers weighed comfortable stock levels against uncertain demand. Multiple PHCC cargoes surfaced, but thin liquidity kept trades sparse. Indian mills in recent tenders faced no urgency to lock deals, bolstered by offers from several sellers, pushing them to ask for further price concessions. This soft purchasing appetite limited any sustained rebound.

Chinese Sentiment Swings & Domestic Dynamics

In China, trading momentum lifted low-vol HCC availability midweek, spurring price gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Traders pivoted towards portside sales or offloading cargoes to other Chinese position takers, lifting sentiment locally. Yet, some participants remained cautious, doubting the rally’s longevity & citing unchanged downstream steel consumption.

At the same time, a major Chinese cokery announced the first domestic coke price hike since May, after four prior cuts. The proposed increase sought Yuan 70-75/mt for stamp-charged coke & Yuan 90-95/mt for top-charged coke, potentially stabilising market mood if accepted by mills.

India’s Watchful Wait & Divergent Demand

Indian steelmakers observed global moves carefully, especially regarding premium Australian cargoes like Oaky North. Traders reportedly pulled back these offers, potentially targeting Chinese buyers who value them more highly. Simultaneously, an Indonesian cokery lifted indicative offers to $193-$195/mt FOB, yet buying stayed thin as the market awaited clarity on India’s quota for imported coke.

Atlantic Apathy & US Market Movements

Across the Atlantic, US high-volatile A met coal eased by $3/mt to $157/mt FOB USEC. Summer lull in Europe & monsoon-driven softness in India reduced spot demand, despite ongoing term contracts. European mills maintained cautious buying through seasonal maintenance, while US domestic demand stayed steady but small in share.

Adding to market uncertainty, US President Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports prompted a retaliatory threat from Brazil targeting US coal. Brazil, importing 45.5% of its coal from the US in Q1, remains a critical destination for US met coal, highlighting the market’s geopolitical fragility.

Traversing Trade Tensions & Tactical Shifts

Global met coal markets face a complex mix: Asian buyers cautiously resisting higher prices, Chinese traders exploiting brief sentiment upticks, & US suppliers grappling with seasonal slowness & tariff risks. While some regions see fleeting firmness, ample material & geopolitical tremors continue to temper broader bullishness.

Key Takeaways:

• Asian met coal prices dipped on slow buying & wide cargo availability.

• Chinese traders shifted focus to portside sales, lifting local delivered pricest.

• Major Chinese cokeries proposed domestic coke price hikes after prior cuts.

• US high-vol A met coal dropped $3/mt to $157/mt amid summer demand softness.

• Threatened US-Brazil tariffs risk disrupting flows; Brazil imports 45.5% of its coal from the US.

Sliding Scrap & Subdued Sentiment: Steel’s Subterranean Spiral in Europe

Western European scrap prices declined by €10–30 per metric ton this month amid slack demand & weakening finished steel markets. While one major buyer curtailed purchases for July & August, some producers balanced the drop by maintaining or modestly raising buying activity. In the Benelux region, prices largely held steady despite currency volatility, as broader European sentiment reflected cautious trading & market fatigue.

Waning Demand & Weighted Prices

The summer slowdown cast a shadow over western Europe’s scrap market, with prices for common grades slipping month-on-month. E40 scrap settled near €295–315 per metric ton delivered, E8 hovered at €290–305, E3 saw quotes around €285–295, & E1C averaged €260–300. The retreat was driven chiefly by declining scrap requirements & softer finished steel sales, as mills adjusted procurement to subdued demand projections.

Buyer Retrenchment & Balancing Acts

A prominent market player sharply reduced purchase volumes for July & August, reflecting deliberate caution against an uncertain backdrop. Yet, this was partially offset by other producers who either sustained or modestly increased buying activity, aiming to stabilise inventories ahead of the seasonal lull. This uneven pattern underscored the market’s mixed sentiment: reluctant to stockpile aggressively yet hesitant to risk shortages.

Benelux Stability & Currency Crosswinds

In contrast, the Benelux scrap market displayed resilience, maintaining prices near €250 per metric ton delivered despite notable euro-dollar exchange rate fluctuations. With the euro positioned around $1.172, traders navigated currency volatility carefully, seeking to protect margin while preserving competitive offers. The relative stability offered a rare point of calm amid Europe’s broader price retreat.

Global Benchmarks & Comparative Currents

Internationally, LME steel scrap benchmarks presented varied signals: CFR Turkey prices held at $345.50, CFR Taiwan stood lower at $302, & CFR India edged higher to $373. These figures highlighted regional disparities driven by local demand strength, freight costs & macroeconomic sentiment. European traders tracked these benchmarks closely, weighing import opportunities & arbitrage windows as domestic conditions softened.

Subdued Sentiment & Seasonal Shadows

Overall, European scrap markets entered July burdened by seasonal slowdowns, macroeconomic caution & fragile steel demand. While some buying persisted to cover immediate needs, the absence of robust forward orders kept enthusiasm muted. Traders now watch for clearer cues post-summer, as mills recalibrate output & economic signals unfold.

Key Takeaways:

• Western European scrap prices dropped by €10–30 per metric ton due to lower demand.

• E40 scrap settled near €295–315/t delivered; E8 & E3 hovered slightly lower.

• One major buyer cut purchases sharply, partly balanced by steady buying elsewhere.

• Benelux scrap prices held near €250/t delivered despite euro-dollar volatility.

• LME scrap benchmarks showed CFR Turkey at $345.50, Taiwan at $302 & India at $373.

CHINA

Rebound, Reform & Rumors: Reviving Rebar & Rolled Sino Steel Realities

Chinese steel prices climbed last week on fresh policy hopes & signs of economic recalibration. Rebar rose to CNY 3323, up 1%, while hot rolled (HR) coil advanced to CNY 3292, up 2%. Momentum came from expectations of government-mandated capacity cuts & renewed focus on easing overcapacity, aiming to support margins amid property woes & trade headwinds. Stronger construction PMI figures & speculation over real estate support added fuel to the recovery.

Reform-Fuelled Rally & Market Momentum

China’s steel market found renewed vigor as policymakers signaled plans to enforce production curbs to tackle chronic overcapacity. This strategic recalibration boosted rebar & HR coil prices, encouraging mills battered by sluggish demand & the lingering property crisis. The government's push to curb excessive supply aims to stabilise prices, protect margins & reinvigorate confidence across the sector.

Baosteel’s Bold Outlook & Industrial Intentions

Adding weight to these moves, industry giant Baosteel projected national output could shrink by 50 million metric tons this year. This forecast reinforced market conviction that real supply-side reform might finally materialise, aligning production more closely with softer domestic demand. The anticipated cutback is also seen as a safeguard against intensifying global protectionism that threatens export volumes.

Property Hopes & Construction Pulse

Beyond steelworks, whispers of targeted policy support for the real estate sector spurred optimism. Chinese property stocks surged, mirroring investor belief that Beijing remains committed to stabilising this cornerstone of economic growth. Meanwhile, the NBS construction PMI rose to a three-month high in June, outperforming other sectors & hinting at a firmer pipeline of projects that could further buoy steel demand.

Commodity Climb & Competitive Curbs

The broader commodity complex also saw gains, underpinned by the government’s pledge to address unfair competition & excess production in heavy industry. By reining in capacity, authorities hope to lift prices from multi-year lows, shield producers from margin erosion & balance supply with realistic consumption forecasts.

Reform Resonance & Policy Pathways

Traders & mills are watching closely for concrete policy announcements. While details remain sparse, the convergence of supply discipline, construction resilience & policy rumours has brought much-needed stability to a sector long plagued by volatility. As the market awaits confirmation, sentiment leans cautiously optimistic, banking on Beijing's resolve to reshape steel’s structural landscape.

Key Takeaways:

• Rebar rose to CNY 3323 (up 1%), HR coil reached CNY 3292 (up 2%) week on week.

• Chinese policymakers signalled capacity cuts to fight oversupply & support margins.

• Baosteel projected a 50 million metric tons fall in national steel output this year.

• NBS construction PMI climbed to a three-month high, suggesting stronger demand.

• Rumours of real estate support boosted property stocks & steel market sentiment.

SEA

Formosa’s Foray & Flat Steel Flux: Vietnam’s Valorous Voyage in Volatile HRC

Vietnam’s Formosa Ha Tinh Steel trimmed its hot rolled coil prices by about $11 per metric ton for August/September shipments, seeking price acceptance in a competitive market overshadowed by trade barriers on Chinese-origin imports. Rival Hoa Phat made a similar cut, while China’s Baosteel took a contrarian step, hiking its domestic HRC prices by $14 per metric ton for August sales, highlighting divergent regional dynamics.

Formosa’s Flexible Pricing & Market Mandate

On 9 July, Formosa Ha Tinh Steel announced its domestic non-skin passed SAE 1006 HRC prices at $497–500 per metric ton CFR southern Vietnam, approximately $11 lower than its previous offer. Price tiers were set to encourage bulk orders: the list price of $507/t for under 2,000 metric tons reduced progressively to $497/t for bookings above 20,000 metric tons.

Domestic rerollers acknowledged limited bargaining power, citing anti-dumping duties that sidelined standard-width Chinese HRC imports. “Buyers will have no choice but to accept the prices,” observed a reroller, highlighting how Formosa’s positioning has become relatively attractive versus alternative sources from Indonesia & China.

Hoa Phat’s Harmonious Hedging

Hoa Phat, Vietnam’s largest HRC producer, mirrored Formosa’s price reduction, setting its August delivery non-skin passed SAE1006 or SS400 grade HRC at roughly $500 per metric ton CFR southern Vietnam. For bulk orders over 20,000 metric tons, the company offered an additional $12 discount. The strategy paid off swiftly, with the entire 400,000–500,000 metric ton allocation selling out last Friday, underlining pent-up demand amid constrained import options.

Baosteel’s Bold Bid & Domestic Dynamics

Contrasting Vietnam’s cautious cuts, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co (Baosteel) announced a price hike of Yuan 100/metric ton ($14/t) for domestic carbon HRC sales in August. As part of China Baowu Steel Group, the world’s largest steelmaker, Baosteel’s decision reflects a domestic market buoyed by policy-driven optimism, production curbs & broader commodity price rebounds.

Anti-Dumping Armour & Allocation Agility

Vietnam’s effective exclusion of Chinese-origin normal-width HRC imports, tier one export price $455 per metric ton FOB China,  has fortified domestic mills’ positions, giving producers like Formosa & Hoa Phat room to adjust prices without losing market share. Traders described Formosa’s pricing as “reasonable” given regional alternatives, with a Hanoi trader noting pipemakers & rerollers can absorb the costs.

Meanwhile, the interplay of discounted bulk orders, limited import competition & steady construction demand has created a narrow but stable corridor for domestic price negotiation.

Contrasts & Convergence in Regional HRC Markets

The week’s developments illustrate diverging regional trajectories: Vietnamese mills cautiously lowered prices to secure volumes, while China’s Baosteel bet on improved domestic sentiment. Together, these moves spotlight the delicate balancing act between supporting margins & preserving competitiveness in Asia’s ever-volatile flat steel sector.

Key Takeaways:

• Formosa Ha Tinh Steel cut HRC prices by about $11/t to $497–500/t for Aug/Sep shipments.

• Hoa Phat mirrored the reduction, selling out 400,000–500,000 metric tons after extra bulk discounts.

• Anti-dumping duties have kept Chinese-origin HRC out of Vietnam, aiding domestic mills.

• Baosteel raised its domestic carbon HRC price by $14/t for August sales.

• Traders find Formosa’s prices reasonable compared to Indonesian & Chinese alternatives.

Typhoon-Triggered Torpor & Tempered Tariffs: Taiwan’s Tenacious Trade Truce

Taiwan’s Feng Hsin Steel has chosen prudence over price moves this week, freezing rebar & scrap rates amid typhoon disruptions & diverging global scrap flows. While the local market watches mainland China’s rebar retreat & global scrap volatility, the steelmaker’s pause reflects a cautious calculus shaped by seasonal storms, sluggish demand & shifting international benchmarks.

Tempestuous Delays & Tactical Decisions

Taiwan’s largest rebar producer, Feng Hsin Steel, deferred its regular Monday pricing meeting to Tuesday after Typhoon Danas swept through southwest Taiwan, shuttering schools & workplaces. Despite the disruption, the mill opted to keep rebar list prices unchanged for July 8–11, quoting TWD 16,400/metric ton ($565/metric ton) EXW for 13mm rebar, mirroring last week’s levels.

On the scrap front, Feng Hsin’s procurement price for local HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap remained steady at TWD 8,000/metric ton, as mills assess global price trends before making adjustments.

Diverging Scrap Dynamics Dampen Decisions

International scrap flows into Taiwan painted a mixed picture: US-sourced HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap prices stayed flat for the third consecutive week at $295/metric ton CFR Taiwan, while Japanese H2 scrap slipped again, dropping $6/metric ton week-on-week to $305/metric ton CFR Taiwan — the fourth straight weekly decline.

Local mini-mills, wary of the price divergence, adopted a wait-and-see approach, weighing imported scrap softness against domestic stability.

Strategic Stillness Amid Seasonal Slowdowns

The broader Taiwanese steel market faces a summer lull, exacerbated by typhoon season & modest downstream demand. By refraining from price adjustments, Feng Hsin signals prudence: holding ground rather than chasing uncertain gains, especially while overseas scrap volatility & mainland price pressure loom.

Market Murmurs & Measured Manoeuvres

Industry observers suggest Feng Hsin’s stance reflects a desire to shield margins from volatile input costs, avoid panic discounting & monitor mainland trends. Whether this equilibrium holds depends on external shocks, from typhoon aftermath to further mainland rebar retreats & international scrap fluctuations.

Key Takeaways:

• Feng Hsin kept rebar offers at TWD 16,400/metric ton ($565/metric ton) EXW amid typhoon disruption.

• Local scrap procurement prices held steady at TWD 8,000/metric ton.

• US scrap imports remained flat at $295/metric ton CFR Taiwan; Japanese H2 scrap fell to $305/metric ton.

• Chinese HRB400E rebar prices softened from July 4 peaks, pressuring Taiwan’s sentiment.

• Mills adopted cautious stability amid seasonal storms, subdued demand & diverging global scrap trends.

TURKEY

Turkish Travails & Tepid Trade: Longs Languish Amid Listless Liquidity

Turkey’s long steel market endured another woeful week, as rebar & wire rod prices slipped further under the weight of weak demand, high costs & geopolitical headwinds. Mills grappled to secure export orders amid EU quota woes & summer lull, while domestic buyers remained cautious, hoping for rate cuts that may not arrive. Discounts deepened as mills chased scarce liquidity, yet cost pressures, notably firm scrap prices, left little room to manoeuvre.

Bleak Export Appetite & Burdensome Quotas

Turkish mills’ official export offers dropped to $530–540/metric ton FOB Türkiye for rebar & $535–550/metric ton FOB for mesh-quality wire rod, a further slide of $5/metric ton from last week. Export demand nearly evaporated, save for sporadic small-volume inquiries from regions like the UK, Africa, Palestine & the Balkans. Over-shipment against EU quota allocations in Q3 also constrained fresh European buying, amplifying the summer slowdown.

Scramble to Sustain Sales Amid Spiralling Costs

Persistently high scrap prices around $345/metric ton CFR Türkiye & pricier billet imports, complicated by Red Sea logistics, eroded margins. Mills, unable to lift prices, resorted to sharp discounts: some rebar offers reportedly dipped to $525/metric ton FOB, while wire rod slipped to $530/metric ton FOB for higher-volume deals. The strategy reflects a desperate bid to convert meagre inquiries into cash flow.

Domestic Despondency Despite Discounting

In Türkiye’s local market, mills’ rebar offers stood at $525–540/metric ton ex-works, yet with credit tight & costly, some stockists & mills reduced selling prices below $520/metric ton. Demand stayed lethargic, undermined by financial constraints & broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

Hope Hinges on Hesitant Rate Cuts

Speculation persists that a potential interest rate cut on July 24 could stimulate domestic steel demand. Yet traders remain sceptical: even if monetary easing materialises, fragile fundamentals & political risks could blunt its effect or halt it altogether.

Broader Backdrop Bodes Ill for Recovery

Beyond Türkiye, sluggish global steel consumption, protectionist trade measures & geopolitical disruptions keep sentiment muted. Turkish mills, trapped between high input costs & frail demand, navigate an increasingly precarious balancing act as summer drags on.

Key Takeaways:

• Turkish mills’ export rebar offers slipped further to $530–540/metric ton FOB amid scant demand.

• Domestic prices dipped below $520/metric ton as mills sought cash flow under tight credit.

• High scrap costs (~$345/metric ton CFR) squeezed margins despite lower steel prices.

• EU quota overshoot in Q3 & geopolitical tensions curbed export appetite.

• Anticipated July rate cut may offer limited support given weak underlying demand drivers.

EUROPE

Bleak Bids & Bearish Bargains: Europe’s Hot-Rolled Coil Conundrum Continues

Europe’s hot-rolled coil market waded deeper into despondency this week, beset by languid demand, cut-throat competition & the looming specter of CBAM legislation. Mills across Northern & Southern Europe slashed offers to attract hesitant buyers, while a flood of Indonesian imports compounded the downward spiral. The summer lull & macroeconomic headwinds left sentiment stubbornly somber, despite a few mills drawing price lines to stem further erosion.

Pervasive Pessimism Amid Summer Slowdown

The European HRC market languished under the weight of subdued consumption & bearish buyer expectations. Domestic HRC in Northern Europe was assessed at €550/metric ton ex-works Ruhr, & €530/metric ton ex-works Italy, both stable day on day yet markedly lower week on week. Some mills dropped offers aggressively to fill order books before holidays, pushing achievable prices in Northern Europe to €530–550/metric ton ex-works, & even lower for large lots.

Import Influx Intensifies Pressure

Indonesian suppliers, exempt from EU safeguard measures, inundated the market with attractively priced coil. Nearly 30,000 metric tons were booked at $555/metric ton CFR Antwerp last week, while new bids emerged at €425–435/metric ton CFR Italy. Concurrently, Turkish offers hovered around €480–500/metric ton CFR duty paid, tightening the spread to domestic HRC & making imports an alluring yet risky alternative for large buyers.

Mills Forced to Flirt with Cost Floors

In Italy, domestic HRC offers clustered around €520–530/metric ton ex-works, levels already testing cost viability for EAF-based mills given current scrap & energy prices. Though some bids dipped as low as €500/metric ton ex-works, no confirmed trades materialized there. A mill source admitted “drawing the line” to protect margins, while another flagged that prices below €520 risked falling under production costs.

CBAM Clouds & Cautious Consumption

Market participants grappled with the impending Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). While some anticipated a pre-2026 import surge to avoid carbon reporting obligations, others doubted demand strength amid persistent economic uncertainties. A German trader observed that mainly major buyers, like tube makers & re-rollers, dared to secure import volumes, leaving smaller traders wary of volatility.

Fragmented Fundamentals & Fragile Forecasts

German mills’ offers for August–September delivery stood at €560–570/metric ton delivered, netting to around €550–560/metric ton ex-works, while Benelux integrated mills pitched at €570/metric ton ex-works. Meanwhile, Fastmarkets’ Northern Europe index fell by €11.04/metric ton week on week, & €61.59/metric ton month on month, mirroring Italy’s drop of €13.33 & €67.92/metric ton respectively.

Secondary market HR sheet traded lower at €630–650/metric ton CPT, compared to €640–660/metric ton late June, underscoring downstream weakness.

Buyers Bet on Bargains but Brace for Risk

While some buyers speculate that cheaper imports may linger, others hesitate, citing currency risk, CBAM uncertainty & seasonal demand drag. A regional supplier noted, “Only big buyers can shoulder the risk; small & medium traders can’t.” With lead times stretching six–eight weeks, mills & buyers alike watch for clearer direction after summer.

Key Takeaways:

• Domestic HRC offers dropped to €530–550/metric ton ex-works in Northern Europe; some mills sold large volumes at €525.

• Indonesian & Turkish imports tightened price gaps; 70,000 metric tons from Indonesia booked at €450 CFR Italy.

• CBAM legislation looms, splitting sentiment between preemptive imports & caution over added costs.

• Mills near cost floors: Italian EAF mills cite €520–530 as minimum sustainable levels.

• Fastmarkets’ indices show month-on-month declines over €60/metric ton in both Northern & Southern Europe.

Listless Longs & Languid Levies: Europe’s Enervated Steel Sojourn

The European longs market endured another week of frailty as tepid demand, tariff tremors & seasonal slowdowns weighed on sentiment. Rebar prices slipped further in Italy, with little actual trading at listed levels, while wire rod demand stayed muted despite stable prices. Broader European trade felt the pinch from geopolitical uncertainty & holiday logistics, as buyers opted for caution over commitment.

Domestic Decline & Dwindling Demand

In Italy, rebar prices retreated by another €10 per metric ton on the lower end, falling to €220–230/mt ex-works base, though some sellers still quoted €240/mt. Including regular extras, this translated to €485–495/mt ex-works. Yet, an Italian mill source confessed, “no one is really selling at these levels,” highlighting a widening gap between nominal prices & actual concluded deals. Demand stayed fragile, cushioned only by existing supply contracts.

Wire Rod Woes & Stagnant Sentiment

Wire rod prices in Italy remained unchanged week on week, €610–625/mt delivered for drawing quality & €595–610/mt for mesh quality. Despite the apparent stability, market response was sluggish. Participants blamed the onset of the holiday season, soaring logistics costs & scarce truck availability, all contributing to slower movement of material & heightened delivery uncertainty.

Eastern Echoes & Export Ebb

In eastern Europe, notably Poland & Slovakia, rebar demand mirrored Italy’s inertia, with Polish rebar delivered prices lingering around €570–575/mt. Export markets showed scant improvement: ex-Greece rebar & wire rod held steady at €575/mt FOB & €570/mt FOB respectively. However, ex-Spain rebar bound for UK ports dipped by €5–10/mt to €545/mt FOB, while ex-Italy rebar hovered near €540/mt FOB, underscoring cautious overseas appetite.

Import Intricacies & Competing Cargoes

The import front presented a patchwork of modest changes: Turkish rebar stood at €480–490/mt CFR, with wire rod slightly higher at €490–495/mt CFR. Algerian rebar & wire rod each fetched €510/mt CFR, while Egyptian rebar reached €490–495/mt CFR & wire rod nudged up to €500–505/mt CFR. Malaysian & Indonesian wire rod converged at roughly €490/mt CFR, hinting at consistent but subdued buying interest.

Market Malaise & Macro Mistrust

Market operators traced the malaise to a mix of factors: Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea, unpredictable US tariff shifts & an unfavourable euro-dollar exchange rate that dulled Europe’s export competitiveness. Coupled with the traditional summer lull, these headwinds left mills & traders wary, choosing to defer large purchases in hopes of clearer economic signals.

Lingering Logistics & Local Limits

In Italy, logistical bottlenecks compounded the challenge. Limited truck availability, escalating delivery fees & looming holiday traffic jams threatened to slow shipments further. For many, the question wasn’t about price alone but whether supply chains could reliably keep pace with modest demand.

Key Takeaways:

• Italian rebar prices dropped €10/mt to €220–230/mt ex-works base, but trading stayed thin.

• Wire rod prices in Italy held steady, yet demand was sluggish amid logistical hurdles.

• Polish rebar prices lingered near €570–575/mt delivered; exports softened modestly.

• Turkish rebar & wire rod imports quoted at €480–495/mt CFR; Algerian & Egyptian offers stayed near €500/mt CFR.

• Geopolitical tension, tariff policy shifts & summer holidays dampened European longs sentiment.

INDIA

Monsoon Malaise & Market Malaise: India’s Flat Steel Faces Faltering Fortunes

Indian hot & cold rolled coil prices stumbled this week, shedding INR 250–500/metric ton ($2.9–5.8/metric ton) on-week, driven by monsoon-induced demand doldrums & frail downstream consumption. Export markets, too, echo caution as EU buyers brace for summer holidays & CBAM uncertainties, while domestic mills balance sliding bids & stable offers.

Seasonal Stagnation Grips Domestic Demand

Indian flat steel prices have fallen for the second consecutive week, buffeted by seasonally sluggish demand & early monsoon onset. As construction & infrastructure projects slow under persistent rains & liquidity constraints, consumption remains tepid. Automotive sales, another major driver, also show continued weakness.

Domestic hot rolled coil offers for IS2062/E250 BR grade slipped INR 250–500/metric ton week-on-week, landing at INR 49,900–50,400/metric ton ($582–588/metric ton) ex-Mumbai. Cold rolled coil offers dropped INR 500/metric ton to INR 56,000–56,500/metric ton, while HR plate offers declined INR 500/metric ton to INR 52,500–53,000/metric ton.

Other coated products followed suit: galvanised coil offers slid to INR 58,000–58,500/metric ton & colour-coated coil settled at INR 68,500–69,500/metric ton.

Market Mulls Deeper Dips by End-July

Market participants forecast further softening, with HRC potentially dropping to INR 49,000–49,500/metric ton by month-end if seasonal headwinds persist. Meanwhile, no fresh import offers have surfaced this week, marking the second straight week of muted interest. Previously, FTA partner-origin HRC offers were last noted at $500–520/metric ton CFR Mumbai/Chennai ports.

Sources point to recent price falls overshadowing appetite for imports, outweighing the effect of the new BIS norms announced last month.

Exports Encounter European Ennui

Indian hot rolled coil export offers to the EU remain stable week-on-week, quoted at $585–595/metric ton CFR Antwerp, or $530–540/metric ton FOB Mumbai. Yet bids hover lower, at around $560–570/metric ton CFR, reflecting EU buyers’ caution before summer holidays & CBAM-driven carbon cost uncertainty.

Though no fresh EU deals were reported this week, a major Indian mill recently booked 45,000–50,000 metric tons to southern Europe over the past month at around $585–590/metric ton CFR Bilbao.

EU safeguard data shows India’s HRC category 1A July–September quota still 100% available, at 227,781 metric tons unutilised.

Coated Coil Caution & Quota Calculations

CRC offers slipped $5–10/metric ton week-on-week to $700–710/metric ton CFR Antwerp, or $645–655/metric ton FOB India. Indian CRC category 2 quota is 99.5% available, with 164,309 metric tons unutilised.

Hot rolled plate offers stayed flat at $675–690/metric ton CFR Antwerp. HDGI prices also held steady at $775–790/metric ton CFR Antwerp, with pre-painted GI commanding a premium of $200/metric ton over HDGI levels.

However, coated products activity waned; traders cite EU buyers’ reluctance to book quota-sensitive material for January shipment. Notably, organic-coated category 5 July–September quota was already exhausted by July 7, while metal-coated category 4A stood at 26.2% available.

Broader Outlook Remains Wary

Domestic mills now navigate subdued consumption, cautious EU demand, & quota dynamics, as seasonal factors & policy uncertainties cloud near-term prospects. Market eyes remain fixed on the monsoon’s course, downstream recovery pace & clarity on CBAM’s implementation.

Key Takeaways:

• Domestic HRC prices fell INR 250–500/metric ton to INR 49,900–50,400/metric ton ($582–588/metric ton).

• CRC & coated products saw similar INR 500/metric ton declines amid monsoon-hit demand.

• Indian HRC export offers to EU stayed at $585–595/metric ton CFR, but bids dropped to $560–570/metric ton.

• CRC export offers to EU fell $5–10/metric ton; coated products quota constraints added caution.

• Seasonal sluggishness & CBAM uncertainties keep both domestic & export markets subdued.