Paradoxical Proliferation & Power Predicaments

China has approved 11.29 gigawatts of new coal-fired power projects in the first quarter of 2025, according to a new report from Greenpeace East Asia. This move comes after 2024 showed a rare retreat in new coal approvals, falling 41.5% year-on-year to 62.24 GW, marking the first such decline since 2021. The resurgence in 2025 has reignited concerns among environmentalists & economists alike about the long-term viability of China’s energy transition efforts.

Transition Tipping Point & Turbulent Trajectories

Greenpeace East Asia’s Beijing-based climate & energy project manager, Gao Yuhe, highlighted that 2025 is a watershed year for emissions in the power sector. According to Gao, “wind & solar growth has finally outpaced coal,” suggesting that if this momentum continues, renewables could fulfill all new electricity demand this year. This milestone could enable China to peak power-sector carbon emissions earlier than planned, potentially aligning the country closer to its 2030 national carbon peaking pledge.

Exponential Escalation & Energy Excesses

Despite renewables’ ascendancy, the recent Q1 2025 approvals push total new coal capacity approved since 2021 to 289 GW, doubling the 145 GW sanctioned from 2015 to 2020 under the 13th Five-Year Plan. Greenpeace’s report underscores a fundamental contradiction: while wind & solar now comprise 1,482 GW of installed capacity, surpassing thermal power's 1,450 GW for the first time, coal approvals persist, risking future overcapacity & inefficiencies.

Provincial Powerplays & Paradoxical Priorities

A geographical shift in project approvals has also been observed. Between 2021 and Q1 2025, approvals have surged not just in traditionally coal-rich western provinces but also in electricity-hungry eastern regions. The top five provinces in this period, Guangdong (28.02 GW), Jiangsu (23.84 GW), Inner Mongolia (20.75 GW), Anhui (19.18 GW), and Shaanxi (17.39 GW), mirror the mixed motivations of economic ambition & energy insecurity.

Gigawatt Growth & Geographic Gyrations

From 2024 to Q1 2025, the bulk of new approvals has shifted westward to provinces endowed with strong renewable potential. Inner Mongolia alone approved 10.64 GW, followed by Gansu (10.02 GW), Xinjiang (5.28 GW), Heilongjiang (4.66 GW), and Jilin (4.66 GW). These approvals increasingly feature large-scale coal units (600 MW & above), which now represent 88.9% of Q1 2025’s sanctioned capacity, compared to 69.6% in 2024.

Flexibility Failings & Fossil Folly

Greenpeace warns that these large-scale coal installations are ill-suited for a modern, agile power grid. Gao Yuhe explains, “Coal plants ramp slowly, maintain high output even on standby & inflate supply unnecessarily.” She emphasizes that cleaner alternatives, such as distributed solar, battery storage & demand-side response, offer more effective, flexible solutions for balancing supply during peak loads.

Planning Pitfalls & Policy Purgatory

As 2025 marks the final year of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, Greenpeace urges swift action from policymakers. Recommendations include a national-level power sector reform blueprint, a revised coal planning risk mechanism, & a clear timeline for phasing out coal. A cost-efficient, peak-load resource adequacy strategy is also advised to prevent redundant infrastructure & escalating transition costs.

Decarbonisation Deadlines & Development Dilemmas

While China remains on the cusp of a transformative energy era, conflicting signals between renewables-led growth & coal-centric inertia threaten progress. Greenpeace calls for enhanced investments to accelerate renewables, bolster system resilience, & reduce dependency on fossil infrastructure. As wind & solar set new records, the challenge lies not in capacity, but in coordination & courage.

Key Takeaways

• China approved 11.29 GW of new coal power in Q1 2025, reversing a 41.5% decline in 2024.

• Wind & solar capacity reached 1,482 GW, surpassing thermal power's 1,450 GW for the first time.

• Greenpeace urges China to accelerate coal phase-out & embrace flexible, clean energy systems.