ENERGY

Petropessimism Prevails Amid Perfidious Production Pledges & Price Perils

Crude Conundrum: WTI Continues to CraterWest Texas Intermediate crude oil futures descended by more than 1%, settling close to the $65 per barrel mark this Monday. The slide prolongs the losses from the previous week, as investor sentiment remained mired in anxiety over supply surges & geopolitical tremors. The bearish tilt came on the heels of fresh announcements from OPEC+, whose decision to ramp up oil output sent ripples through global energy markets.

OPEC+ Overdrive: Production Plans AccelerateOPEC+ declared a bolder-than-expected production increase for August, raising output by 548,000 barrels per day, a leap from the previously anticipated 411,000 bpd. This adjustment aims to gradually reintroduce nearly 80% of the 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts that had been made by eight member states. However, the grandiloquent declarations have yet to translate into tangible volumes; actual supply increases have lagged behind intentions, further complicating market forecasts.

Saudi Arabia’s Singular Stride in Supply SurgeAmong the cartel’s members, Saudi Arabia continues to shoulder the lion’s share of production increases. Its contribution dominates the newly added barrels, reaffirming its role as the bloc’s central stabilizer. Simultaneously, the kingdom raised the price of its benchmark Arab Light crude oil for Asian buyers in August, elevating it to a four-month pinnacle. This price hike signals confidence in regional demand strength, even as global uncertainties persist.

Market Murmurs: Tariffs & Trade Tensions Take Centre StageInvestor trepidation deepened further after former President Donald Trump indicated that the United States is poised to formalize multiple trade agreements imminently. He also signaled an impending imposition of elevated tariff rates, slated to be announced by July 9 & activated on August 1. Such protectionist policy moves threaten to crimp global fuel demand, further unsettling already fragile energy markets.

Supply-Demand Dissonance: A Divergent DisquietThe market remains caught in a paradox, while output surges on paper, real-world barrels remain elusive. Meanwhile, demand growth teeters under pressure from economic ambiguity, trade policy gyrations, & seasonal adjustments. The discrepancy between OPEC+ commitments & delivery underscores the coalition's logistical limitations amid an evolving geopolitical milieu.

Asia’s Appetite vs America’s AnxietyAsia’s crude consumption landscape remains comparatively buoyant, evident in Saudi Arabia's price hikes. Yet across the Pacific, US-centric fiscal turbulence & tariff threats threaten to dampen energy appetite. The resulting dichotomy accentuates the regional fault lines in oil demand dynamics, adding a new layer of complexity to price trajectories.

Gas Gains Ground as Geopolitics, Gusts & Green Goals Grapple for Glory

Market Momentum Reawakens Post SlumpAfter languishing at an eight-week trough of €33 per MWh, European natural gas futures staged a mild recovery, inching upward to €34 per MWh. This subtle rebound reflects an interplay of meteorological moderation, consistent supply flows, & evolving geopolitical sentiment, all congealing into a delicate equilibrium that shapes the region’s energy calculus.

Meteorological Movements Mute Demand SurgeThe oppressive European heatwave that recently intensified cooling demand is now showing signs of abatement. As temperatures ease, the immediate need for gas-fuelled electricity generation declines. Compounding this is an uptick in wind power output across northwestern Europe, which is beginning to cannibalize gas usage in power plants, exemplifying the growing strength of renewables in the continent’s energy tapestry.

Supply Steadiness Stifles SpeculationOn the supply front, equilibrium prevails. Norwegian pipeline exports continue to arrive with reassuring consistency, while liquefied natural gas send-outs remain steady across key European terminals. The reliability of these supply streams has assuaged concerns of scarcity, fostering subdued volatility in futures trading, even as broader macroeconomic uncertainties simmer beneath the surface.

Geopolitical Gyrations Tempered by TruceLast week’s 18% plunge in gas prices was largely catalyzed by a geopolitical détente, specifically, the ceasefire agreement between Iran & Israel. This de-escalation mitigated fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime artery for global energy transit. The swift geopolitical recalibration allowed markets to reprice risk more conservatively, anchoring prices at lower levels before this week’s modest recovery.

China’s Economic Languor Redirects LNG RiversA weakening Chinese economy, entangled in tariff escalations & industrial stagnation, has curtailed the country’s appetite for imported LNG. This softening demand from Asia’s largest consumer has rerouted cargoes toward Europe, further bolstering the continent’s gas availability. While this influx enhances short-term supply, it simultaneously exerts downward pressure on prices, offsetting some of the bullish signals from other quarters.

Climate Commitments Carve Future PathwaysMeanwhile, the European Commission is poised to unveil a landmark 2040 climate policy targeting a 90% reduction in net emissions from 1990 levels. Though the proposal includes latitude for industrial adjustment, it reinforces Brussels’ trajectory toward deep decarbonisation. Such long-range policy signals influence investment patterns, infrastructure planning & energy market expectations, even if their immediate price impact remains muted.

The Delicate Dance of Decarbonisation & DemandEurope’s gas market now finds itself at the fulcrum of a multifaceted balancing act. Weather, renewable generation, geopolitical reprieves & regulatory foresight all coalesce to define its near-term direction. As traders weigh these variables, volatility may remain subdued, but underlying complexities hint at simmering shifts on the horizon.

Newcastle’s Nocturnal Nosedive & Nascent Notions of Resurgent Recoil

A Tepid Turnaround from April AbyssThe Newcastle coal futures market witnessed a slow yet salient resurgence this July, rising to $111 per metric ton. This rally emerges from a protracted slump that bottomed out in late April at $93.7 per metric ton, marking a four-year nadir. The uptick, though not exuberant, signals nuanced momentum in demand patterns, especially from Asian economic giants.

Indian & Chinese Appetite Rekindles Embers of DemandRecent trade metrics revealed a tangible uptick in thermal coal imports across India & China, reaching a five-month pinnacle in May. This surge corresponds closely to China’s bolstering of coal-fired power capacity in the first quarter. Moreover, Beijing’s central planner urged energy firms to replenish dwindling inventories, an administrative nudge likely designed to buffer potential summer demand spikes or geopolitical supply shocks.

Supply Still Stubbornly SanguineDespite positive price cues, the coal market continues to float in a state of relative overabundance. The front-month Newcastle contract, while higher month-on-month, remains over 15% below last year’s benchmark. This discrepancy underscores a surplus-driven landscape, fueled both by sustained domestic mining & underwhelming consumption growth in traditional bastions of coal-fired energy.

Renewables Erode Reliance on Fossil FlamesChina’s fossil-fuel power output shrank by 4.7% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2025. This retrenchment reflects not only tempered industrial activity but also the meteoric rise of renewable power generation. Wind, solar & hydro now cover a growing slice of China’s energy pie, increasingly displacing coal from its historic primacy in the grid.

Domestic Output Escalates in the Dragon EconomyIn May, China’s domestic coal production rose 4% year-over-year, reaffirming its strategic posture to remain self-sufficient. The government has already telegraphed plans to lift total coal production by 1.5%, targeting an eye-watering 4.82 billion metric tons by year-end. This follows a record-breaking output spree in 2024, an overt signal of Beijing’s hedging strategy despite global decarbonisation discourse.

Balancing a Brittle Market of Boom & BustWhile seaborne coal trade flickers back to life, the market is far from returning to bullish exuberance. The coal complex remains a theatre of contradictory forces, sluggish international demand recovery, surplus supply buffers, renewables-driven displacement, and policy-driven production surges.

INPUT MATERIALS

Iron’s Inexorable Incline Amid Interventionist Imperatives & Export Ebb

Iron Ore Reclaims Strength on Policy SignalsIron ore futures surged to nearly CNY 736 per metric ton on Friday, marking the highest level in seven weeks. This price renaissance came as Beijing intensified regulatory scrutiny over irrational price-cutting by firms, an effort aimed at staving off deflation & propping up China's embattled steel sector. The Central Financial & Economic Affairs Commission earlier this week issued a stern advisory against excessive price competition, seen as an acute threat to profitability & industrial stability.

Steel Sector Struggles Stir Administrative ActivismChina’s steel industry, long a cornerstone of its industrial prowess, continues to weather an arduous cycle of low margins, waning domestic demand & chronic overcapacity. The state’s latest interventionist rhetoric underscores its growing unease over the sector’s structural malaise. By clamping down on unjustified price slashing, regulators aim to restore pricing discipline, ensure orderly market behaviour & prevent a deflationary spiral that could ricochet across related industries.

Export Lull from Mining Majors Fuels Bullish BetsContributing to the upward price pressure were fresh signs of a slowdown in global iron ore shipments. Data showed that mining behemoths, Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue Metals, & Vale, registered month-over-month declines in export volumes. Seasonal disruptions, operational bottlenecks, & logistics hiccups have conspired to restrict supply, tightening availability in key Asian markets. This decline in outbound cargo from Australia & Brazil, the world’s two largest exporters, has bolstered bullish sentiment among traders.

Policy Push Meets Tangshan TetherHowever, the rally found a ceiling as demand signals in some quarters began to falter. Most notably, Tangshan, China’s industrial steel hub, has implemented fresh environmental curbs & production restrictions in line with its decarbonisation agenda. These measures, although aligned with the nation’s long-term sustainability commitments, act as a brake on short-term consumption of raw materials like iron ore, especially as mills are instructed to scale back output.

Regulation, Restraint & Realignment in FocusThe juxtaposition of administrative tightening on price conduct & broader environmental mandates highlights the dual-track nature of China’s policy landscape. On one hand, it seeks to stabilise industrial pricing mechanisms to preserve economic equilibrium. On the other, it continues its crusade against emissions-intensive industries, pushing for greener steelmaking practices through reduced production & innovation in low-carbon technologies.

Demand Dichotomy Shapes Market TrajectoryThough supply-side headwinds have helped firm up prices, demand remains uneven. While Beijing’s regulatory resolve instills optimism about market discipline, the structural realities of subdued construction activity, infrastructure slowdowns & strict emissions targets serve as counterweights. Traders are thus navigating a landscape marked by both buoyancy & caution.

Met Coal Markets Meander Amid Mid-Vol Malaise & Mainland Market Mutations

Marginal Slippage in Seaborne Met Coal BenchmarksOn July 3, Asian metallurgical coal prices experienced a modest decline, dragged down by a softer offer for Australian premium low-vol material. Platts assessed premium low-vol hard coking coal at $182/metric ton FOB Australia, down $1.30/metric ton from previous levels. While the premium low-vol CFR China price remained steady at $159/metric ton, limited trading activity & cautious sentiment across Asia kept the market largely tepid.

Oaky North Offer Reflects Lower Buying AppetiteAn Asian trader floated an offer for a 75,000-metric-ton cargo of Australian PLV coal from Oaky North, scheduled for second-half August loading, at $183/metric ton FOB Australia. The subdued interest highlighted the market’s current indecisiveness, where buyers remained on the sidelines amid macroeconomic fog & price fatigue.

India’s Iron Woes Weigh on Coking Coal DemandIndia's metallurgical coal market revealed a mixed narrative. Despite earlier deals involving Australian premium mid-vol cargoes at relatively elevated prices, Indian end-users began displaying resistance. The primary deterrents were weak domestic steel prices & uncertainties surrounding the enforcement of met coke import quotas.

An Indian coke producer remarked that soft domestic demand offered little incentive for cokeries to ramp up coking coal purchases. Nevertheless, small-scale restocking by steelmakers was observed, although it lacked the momentum to sustain upward price pressure.

Quota Quandary Casts a Shadow Over ImportsIndia’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade announced July 13 as the final date for applying for met coke import quotas. This looming deadline created a pause in market activity, as end-users turned inward to focus on regulatory compliance rather than engaging in aggressive procurement.

A trader noted that sustained support for Australian FOB pricing hinges on how tenacious Indian buyers are in selecting mid-vol coal over PLV alternatives or even Canadian blends.

Chinese Confidence Contrasts Subcontinental SentimentIn stark contrast to India’s market lethargy, China’s domestic coking coal prices remained buoyant. Stronger sentiment, fueled by speculative optimism on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, pushed futures significantly higher. A Chinese trader emphasized the role of policy-driven anticipation, with expectations of further efforts to shutter outdated coking capacity adding to the bullish tone.

A South China end-user noted that Canadian coal’s competitiveness was improving, although reselling interest in Chinese-linked CFR Canadian cargoes appeared to wane as inventories at northern ports declined.

Shanxi Signals Supply ShiftsDespite the upbeat sentiment, supply-side risks emerged. Reports surfaced that a major coal hub in Shanxi province had urged previously idle coal miners to resume output. This development triggered concerns about a potential uptick in domestic supply, which could dampen recent gains in domestic coal prices if not counterbalanced by stronger end-user demand.

Portside Tightness & Declining InventoriesNorth China-based traders confirmed that portside prices for small volumes of Australian premium mid-vol coal & Canadian premium low-vol coal rose modestly. Limited fresh shipments & steady offloading of older cargoes have gradually depleted available inventory, creating mild supply-side tightness in certain regional pockets.

Coke Prices Steady Amid Coal FluctuationsIn the met coke segment, prices across FOB Australia, CFR China & CFR India remained stable. A Chinese coke supplier confirmed that coke prices held steady despite the rise in raw material costs, highlighting a disconnect between upstream price sentiment & downstream market traction.

Turkish Trade Tussles Tangle Scrap Sentiment Amid Euro Elevation & Export Evasion

Scrap Sentiment Starts Sluggish in TürkiyeActivity in the Turkish scrap market stumbled at the start of the week as mills paused fresh bookings, having already completed their July-shipment cargo purchases. With order books temporarily filled, Turkish buyers have pivoted their attention toward finished steel sales, deferring new scrap bookings until later in the month for August-shipment cargoes.

Anticipated Adjustments Amid EU Steel MalaiseMarket expectations have shifted toward a downward correction in European scrap pricing, fuelled by tepid EU steel demand and forecasts of weaker July settlements. Turkish buyers are increasingly positioning themselves for more competitive offers, setting psychological targets below $335/metric ton CFR Türkiye. Yet, their ambitions are being curtailed by macroeconomic forces beyond their control.

The Euro’s Ascent Impedes Turkish BargainingThe euro’s appreciationhas complicated price negotiations. European exporters are grappling with the foreign exchange imbalance, finding it unviable to lower CFR offers further without squeezing margins. A recent cargo of Netherlands-origin HMS 1&2 80:20 was reportedly concluded at $337.5/metric ton CFR Türkiye, although this remained unconfirmed.

European suppliers, wary of unsustainable pricing, continue to cite workable CFR offers between $336-338/metric ton, leaving a narrow corridor for negotiation.

Exporters Explore Alternatives, but Demand Remains DiffuseAs Türkiye exercises restraint, European & UK-based scrap suppliers are probing alternative destinations such as Egypt & Saudi Arabia. While these markets offer some reprieve, they remain insufficient in scale to offset Türkiye’s dominant buying power. The redistribution of tonnage has thus far failed to generate firm traction or price buoyancy.

Concurrently, major Asian buyers, including India, Taiwan & Vietnam, are also exhibiting lacklustre demand. This is largely due to weak downstream steel sales, price competition from imported billet, and broader industrial inertia in these economies. Indian buyers, in particular, are cautious due to local monsoon disruptions and policy-related uncertainties.

American Assertiveness: US Exporters Hold the LineAcross the Atlantic, US scrap exporters are resisting downward pressure, buoyed by robust domestic steel prices and anticipated strong buying activity from American mills in July. Offers above $345/metric ton CFR Türkiye remain common, supported by internal demand & logistical firmness. This has created a pricing divergence between Atlantic Basin suppliers and Turkish mill expectations.

Although US suppliers appear steadfast, the question remains whether Turkish mills, pressured by slowing finished steel exports and currency volatility, can absorb higher-priced shipments from across the ocean.

A Market in Pause, Not PanicThis week’s lull in Turkish scrap procurement reflects a cautious recalibration rather than a full-scale retreat. Buyers are biding their time, watching currency trends, regional demand fluctuations & emerging cargo offers. The overall tone remains expectant, poised for adjustment once clearer direction materialises from both policy and pricing fronts.

LME Futures: A Snapshot of Scrap SteelThe steel scrap market entered July with a tone of quiet consolidation, marked by stable prices across leading import hubs. According to the latest Platts & Argus assessments, LME steel scrap CFR Turkey remained at $350/metric ton, CFR India at $373/metric ton, and CFR Taiwan at $302/metric ton. While no dramatic shifts occurred during the week, traders kept a hawkish eye on fluctuating regional dynamics and looming policy uncertainties.

CHINA

Sino Steel’s Subtle Surge Spurs Speculation Amid Structural Shifts & Supply Slack

Rebar & HR Coil Register Weekly RisesPrices for rebar climbed to CNY 3,286/metric ton, reflecting a 2% week-on-week increase. Similarly, hot-rolled coil edged up to CNY 3,242/metric ton, up by 1%. These modest increases mirror growing market confidence, especially among construction-linked steelmakers anticipating steadier demand in the latter half of the year.

Steel Futures Rebound from Nine-Month NadirSteel futures in China maintained their recovery trajectory this week, stabilising around CNY 3,030/metric ton. This marks a notable ascent from the nine-month low of CNY 2,940/metric ton seen in June. The bounce reflects a delicate confluence of supply-side restraint, improving downstream indicators & policy recalibration by Chinese authorities.

Supply-Side Suppression Takes Centre StageA linchpin of this recovery is the central government's intensified commitment to restructure industrial steel capacity. Chinese policymakers recently reinforced their resolve to reduce chronic overproduction, a long-standing Achilles' heel in the sector. The government’s messaging suggests imminent regulatory tightening, particularly targeting unproductive furnaces, inefficient mills & environmentally non-compliant operators.

Baosteel’s Bearish Output Projection Adds WeightSupporting this narrative, industry heavyweight Baosteel projected that China’s national steel output could fall by as much as 50 million metric tons in 2025. This would represent a significant recalibration in supply, aligned with Beijing’s broader decarbonisation & industrial de-risking goals. The prospect of shrinking availability, especially during peak construction season, has prompted cautious optimism among suppliers.

Construction Sector Signals Renewed VigourThe construction Purchasing Managers’ Index, measured by the National Bureau of Statistics, climbed to a three-month high in June. This outperformance contrasts starkly with the sluggish performance of other economic sectors, highlighting construction’s pivotal role in underpinning steel demand. Seasonal restocking, supported by infrastructure investment & localized stimulus efforts, has further buoyed sentiment.

Global Trade Tensions Temper Demand OutlookHowever, headwinds persist. The ongoing property sector malaise in China, combined with the rising spectre of protectionist trade policies from major steel importers such as the US & EU, continues to mute overall demand growth. These external frictions are prompting mills to lean more heavily on domestic consumption, limiting their pricing power abroad.

SEA

Vietnam’s Volatile Valuations Vex Vendors Amid Chinese Coil Comeback & Cost Cuts

Hoa Phat Lowers August HRC Quotes in Strategic RetreatVietnam’s leading steel producer, Hoa Phat Dung Quat, announced a downward revision of its domestic hot rolled coil prices for August deliveries, reflecting growing competitive pressure & tepid demand. The new pricing, revealed on 1 July, is set at approximately $500/metric ton CFR southern Vietnam, excluding VAT, marking a $11/metric ton reduction from the previous month.

In local currency, this equates to VND 13,150/kg, which is VND 240/kg lower compared to June's listed prices, based on an exchange rate of VND 26,310/USD. For northern & central Vietnam, the revised price has also been trimmed to VND 13,120/kg CFR, maintaining parity in the company’s pricing strategy across all key regions.

Demand Dwindles Amid Re-Emergence of Chinese Wide-Width HRCOne of the main reasons behind the price dip is the resurgence of Chinese wide-width HRC imports into the Vietnamese market. The influx of 2,000mm width, 3-12mm thickness Q235-grade HRC from China, offered at a starkly lower $452/metric ton CFR Vietnam, has put considerable downward pressure on local mills.

A Hanoi-based trader commented that the ultra-competitive pricing from China has already begun to sway Vietnamese stockists and fabricators, who are now seen diverting their purchases away from domestic producers like Hoa Phat & Formosa Ha Tinh. The influx has effectively diluted the price support previously offered by anti-dumping measures targeting standard-width Chinese HRC of up to 1,880mm, introduced in February.

Export Erosion Compounds Domestic ChallengesCompounding domestic headwinds is a reduction in Vietnamese coated steel export sales, especially to major markets in Asia. The global slowdown in steel-intensive industries, coupled with price-sensitive buyers turning toward cheaper Chinese alternatives, has forced Vietnamese mills to scale back pricing to retain regional competitiveness.

Producers are now confronted with the dual dilemma of shrinking export volumes and diminishing domestic support, a confluence that could weigh heavily on their profit margins through Q3.

Pricing Mechanics: Thickness & Grade AdjustmentsHoa Phat’s revised quotes are based on SAE1006 or SS400-grade HRC, with 40–50% of each lot composed of 2mm-thickness strips, while the remaining 50–60% spans 2.3–3mm in thickness. These adjustments reflect market preferences, though traders are increasingly focused on Chinese-origin coils, which offer broader width and deeper discounts.

The Chinese 2,000mm HRC offerings not only provide more material per coil but also bypass previous anti-dumping penalties due to their dimensional classification, giving Chinese mills a crucial advantage.

Exchange Rates Add to Pricing ComplexityWhile domestic VND-denominated prices dropped uniformly, exchange rate volatility remains a factor. The recent appreciation of the Vietnamese dong to VND 26,310/USD somewhat softens import costs for buyers evaluating Chinese alternatives. This adds another layer of challenge for local producers, whose cost base remains tethered to raw material imports & fluctuating energy inputs.

Outlook: A Market in FluxWith Chinese prices exerting undeniable influence and Vietnamese exports underperforming, the domestic HRC market appears poised for a recalibration. Unless countervailing trade measures are reinforced or global demand rebounds, producers like Hoa Phat may face a longer cycle of competitive price suppression.

--

EUROPE

Flatlining Ferrous Figures Fluster Europe’s Coil Circuit Amid Summer Slumber

Summer Lethargy Suppresses Steel Coil Activity Across EuropeThe European flat steel market witnessed subdued trading last week, with prices for cold-rolled coil, hot-rolled coil, and hot-dipped galvanized products largely unmoved across both Northern & Southern Europe. The seasonal lull, a recurring phenomenon during the European summer months, coupled with weak downstream demand, continued to weigh on sentiment.

Northern Europe: Slight Slippage in CRC & HDG Amid ApathyIn Northern Europe, domestic CRC prices fell slightly, with market participants pegging the workable price range at €650–660/metric ton ex-works, compared to €660–670/metric ton last week. Actual deals were confirmed at €660/metric ton ex-works, reflecting buyer reluctance to purchase beyond urgent needs.

Import prices for CRC, however, held steady at €630–640/metric ton CFR main port, showing no week-on-week movement, as buyers await further clarity on post-summer activity.

Meanwhile, domestic HDG prices also edged lower, falling to €670–680/metric ton ex-works from the previous €670–690/metric ton range. This narrowing was in line with overall muted trading conditions. Import prices for HDG were unchanged at €690–700/metric ton CFR main port, indicating supply stability despite lacklustre consumption.

Southern Europe: Price Paralysis Continues Amid Market MalaiseIn contrast, Southern Europe’s market remained firmly inert, as both CRC & HDG prices registered no week-on-week changes. Domestic CRC was assessed at €660–680/metric ton ex-works, slightly lower than last week’s €670–700.

CRC import prices into Southern Europe mirrored last week’s levels, holding at €590–630/metric ton CFR main port, suggesting no significant change in sentiment or volume.

For HDG, the domestic market retained last week’s levels at €680–690/metric ton ex-works, while HDG import values held steady at €670–700/metric ton CFR, continuing a multi-week trend of stagnation since mid-May. The lack of directional movement underscores a market in observational mode, driven by low construction activity and curtailed inventory restocking.

Muted Market Mechanics: Demand Doldrums RuleAcross both regions, traders cited the summer slowdown, characterised by extended industrial holidays, lower construction activity & minimal automotive restocking, as the key reason behind the inactivity. Buyers appear cautious, unwilling to build inventory amid economic uncertainty and subdued end-user orders.

“There is simply no incentive to commit to large volumes when consumption remains so sluggish,” noted one trader in Germany. Another echoed similar views in Italy, stating, “The market is stable, but it’s the kind of stability that reflects inactivity rather than balance.”

Import Markets Reflect Stability, Not StrengthInterestingly, import prices across CRC & HDG remained flat week-on-week in both Northern & Southern Europe. This suggests that foreign suppliers are unwilling to make aggressive pricing moves without demand pick-up, instead choosing to wait for post-holiday reactivation before offering more competitive rates.

The absence of volatility in import offers also indicates a well-supplied market, with minimal logistical constraints or pricing disruptions across major trade lanes.

Southern Europe: Mills Cut to Coax BuyersIn Italy & surrounding Southern European markets, heavy steel plate prices continued to erode during the week ending July 3, with mills under pressure to secure fresh orders in a market bereft of robust demand. Prices for domestic 8–40mm steel plates ex-works Southern Europe settled between €590–620/metric ton, a range that widened downward by €10/metric ton from last week’s €600–620 range.

Buying activity remains tepid, with customers hesitant to commit beyond immediate needs.

Stockholders Stay Cautious, Imports IrrelevantStockists and end-users across Southern Europe have adopted a hand-to-mouth procurement strategy, unwilling to take on excess stock amid uncertain downstream demand. While prices appear historically attractive, fears of further declines are dissuading speculative purchasing.

Interestingly, imported material remains largely out of the picture. Despite wider availability from global exporters, buyers reported sufficient local inventory at competitive prices & quick delivery schedules, leaving little incentive to pursue offshore options.

Northern Europe: Identical Ills, Similar SlideThe scenario in Northern Europe mirrored its Southern counterpart, where heavy plate prices also registered a €10/metric ton weekly decline. 8–40mm domestic steel plate ex-works Northern Europe prices are at €640–675/metric ton, compared to €650–675/metric ton a week prior.

EUROPE

Rebar Retreat Rattles Raipur as Rains Ravage Indian Infrastructure Demand

Rains Drench Demand, Prices Slide Across RegionsThe Indian rebar market continued its downward trajectory this week, battered by monsoon-induced disruptions, low construction activity, and a glut of available inventory. Prices for 12–32mm IS 1786 Fe 550D rebar from primary mills declined to INR 51,000–51,500/metric ton (equivalent to $598–604/metric ton) ex-Mumbai, reflecting a sharp INR 5,000–6,000/metric ton correction over recent weeks.

Similarly, secondary rebar, specifically 12–25mm IS 1786 Fe 500D, traded at INR 41,000–41,200/metric ton ex-Raipur, highlighting a steep and continued price erosion in central India’s spot markets.

Monsoon Mayhem Halts Key Infrastructure ProjectsTraders & producers unanimously attribute this sharp fall in prices to seasonal slowdowns caused by the monsoon. A Mumbai-based trader noted that ongoing government & private infrastructure projects, including flyovers, bridges, hospitals, roadworks & pipeline installations, are advancing at a glacial pace.

The intensity of rainfall has interrupted operations across project sites, washed away construction materials, and forced shutdowns of hot mix asphalt plants. According to a rebar distributor, “Heavy water flow is washing away critical materials at bridge sites, raising safety concerns & halting progress.”

Inventory Overhang Adds to Price PressureAmple availability of rebar in both primary & secondary markets has exacerbated the pressure on prices. Mills continue to operate at sub-optimal capacity but are still accumulating stock, with traders reluctant to restock amid falling prices and sluggish dispatches.

Many re-rolling units and medium-scale producers have reportedly begun offering discounts, further compounding bearish sentiment in spot markets like Hyderabad, Nagpur, and Bhilai.

Policy Pause Fails to Reignite BuyingAlthough there has been informal deferment of the new BIS mandate for long steel products, originally intended to enforce stricter quality standards, the relief has not translated into price support. While secondary rebar producers briefly welcomed the regulatory breather, demand fundamentals remain too fragile to benefit meaningfully from policy leniency.

Flat Steel Resilience Narrows Rebar-HRC SpreadIn contrast, prices for flat products, particularly hot rolled coil, have remained remarkably stable, buttressed by safeguard duties and the BIS quality mandate, which restricts non-compliant imports. As a result, the historical price spread between rebar and HRC has narrowed, placing further pressure on long product profitability.

For mills relying on long product sales to balance flat product volumes, this narrowing spread signals eroding margins, especially amid costlier input materials like ferroalloys and sponge iron.

Regional Highlights:

• Western India (Mumbai): Primary rebar down to INR 51,000/metric ton, lowest in 6 months.

• Central India (Raipur): Secondary rebar now at INR 41,000–41,200/metric ton ex-works.

• South India (Hyderabad & Bengaluru): Spot trades tepid, rains halt road & housing projects.

• Northern India (Delhi NCR): Steady but low demand from small contractors & realtors.--