Overview of Price Forecast

In 2025, the average price for rolled steel in Russia is predicted to decrease by 11% compared to the previous year, according to a review by Euler Analytical Technologies. The anticipated cost of hot-rolled steel is set to be $543 per metric ton, down from $608 in 2024. This significant price drop raises questions about the factors driving the steel market and its future trajectory.

Current Market Situation

As of the first quarter of 2025, the weighted average price for rolled steel stood at $540 per metric ton. However, spot prices were notably higher at $638 per metric ton. The disparity between these prices indicates fluctuations in demand and supply dynamics, as well as the ongoing adjustments made by steel manufacturers in response to rising costs.

Impact of Production Costs

Steelmakers in Russia have begun to reflect ongoing cost increases in their pricing strategies. The survey conducted by Euler Analytical Technologies highlights that since April 2025, manufacturers have started passing on these costs to consumers. This trend suggests that while prices may be declining overall, the production environment remains challenging, with costs still influencing market behavior.

Export Quotations and Trends

Export prices for rolled steel are also expected to decline, although the reduction is projected to be modest at 0.4%. On a Free On Board basis, the price of rolled products will drop to $523 per metric ton. This slight decrease in export quotations indicates a competitive international market, where Russian steel must contend with global pricing pressures.

Factors Influencing Price Changes

Several factors contribute to the anticipated decline in steel prices. A significant element is the global supply chain's recovery post-pandemic, which has improved the availability of raw materials and production inputs. Additionally, the easing of previous supply constraints has allowed for a more stable market environment, leading to lower prices.

Domestic Demand and Economic Conditions

Domestic demand for steel in Russia is also a critical factor influencing prices. Economic conditions, including inflation rates and consumer spending, will play a vital role in shaping the market. Analysts suggest that if demand remains steady or increases, it could offset some of the price declines, creating a more balanced market scenario.

Future Outlook for the Steel Industry

Looking ahead, the Russian steel industry faces both opportunities and challenges. While the forecasted price drop may benefit consumers and certain sectors, steel manufacturers will need to adapt to maintain profitability. The ability to innovate and optimize production processes will be crucial in navigating the evolving landscape.

Conclusion of the Price Analysis

The expected decrease in rolled steel prices in Russia for 2025 reflects broader trends in the global steel market. As manufacturers respond to changing conditions, the industry will need to remain agile to sustain growth and competitiveness in an increasingly complex environment.

Key Takeaways 

- The average price for rolled steel in Russia is projected to decrease by 11% in 2025, reaching $543 per metric ton. 

- Current spot prices for rolled steel are higher at $638 per metric ton, indicating market volatility. 

- Export prices are expected to decline slightly to $523 per metric ton on a FOB basis, reflecting competitive international pressures.