The Stark Choice Between Climate Futures

The climate trajectory humanity chooses today will fundamentally reshape the lives of millions of children born this decade, according to compelling new research released ahead of the Paris Agreement's 10th anniversary. The joint study by Save the Children and Vrije Universiteit Brussel presents a stark contrast between possible futures: under current climate commitments projecting 2.7°C warming above pre-industrial levels, approximately 100 million children born in 2020, representing 83% of that birth cohort, will face "unprecedented" lifetime exposure to extreme heat. However, successfully limiting warming to the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target would dramatically reduce this number to 62 million affected children, sparing 38 million young lives from dangerous heat conditions. The research defines an "unprecedented" life as exposure to climate extremes that someone would have less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of experiencing in a world without human-induced climate change. This quantifiable difference between climate scenarios underscores the critical importance of immediate and ambitious climate action, particularly the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and their subsidies. The study further examined a more severe 3.5°C warming scenario, finding that approximately 111 million children born in 2020, or 92% of the cohort, would face unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme heat waves, painting an even more alarming picture of potential climate futures.

The Devastating Health Impacts on Children

Extreme heat presents particularly severe dangers for children, whose developing bodies are less able to regulate temperature and who depend on adults for protection from environmental hazards. The report, titled "Born into the Climate Crisis 2. An Unprecedented Life: Protecting Children's Rights in a Changing Climate," details how dangerous heat conditions take an immense toll on children's physical and mental health. Heat exposure increases risks of dehydration, heat stroke, and exacerbates respiratory and cardiovascular conditions in young people. Beyond direct health impacts, extreme heat disrupts access to essential resources including food and clean water, creating cascading effects on childhood development and wellbeing. Educational opportunities are similarly compromised when schools must close due to unsafe heat conditions, interrupting learning and potentially widening achievement gaps. Mental health impacts, though less visible, are equally concerning, as children experience anxiety, stress, and trauma related to climate disasters and uncertainty about their futures. These health burdens are not distributed equally, with children in resource-limited settings facing greater exposure to extreme heat with fewer protective measures such as air conditioning, adequate hydration, or access to healthcare when heat-related illnesses occur. The comprehensive health threats posed by extreme heat make climate action a fundamental child health and rights issue.

Beyond Heat: Multiple Climate Threats to Children

While extreme heat represents a significant danger, the study emphasizes that meeting the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target would shield millions of children from multiple climate-related disasters. The research examined how limiting warming would reduce children's exposure to crop failures that threaten food security, devastating floods that destroy homes and infrastructure, intensifying tropical cyclones, prolonged droughts that deplete water resources, and increasingly frequent and severe wildfires. These climate extremes are already becoming more frequent and severe due to human-induced climate change, forcing children from their homes, putting adequate nutrition out of reach, damaging educational facilities, and increasing protection risks. The report specifically highlights how climate disasters can lead to increased child marriage as families are forced into desperate coping mechanisms when children are pushed out of education and into poverty and food shortages. Each of these climate impacts creates compounding vulnerabilities for children, whose developmental needs require stable environments, consistent nutrition, educational continuity, and physical safety. The difference between the 1.5°C and higher warming scenarios represents not just statistics but fundamentally different lived experiences for the next generation, with cascading effects on their rights, opportunities, and wellbeing across their entire lifespans.

Inequality Amplifies Climate Vulnerability

The research emphasizes that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, disproportionately affecting children already facing inequality and discrimination. Children in lower and middle-income countries, who have contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions, often face the greatest climate risks with the fewest resources to adapt. These children typically have less access to healthcare systems capable of addressing climate-related illnesses, live in housing more vulnerable to extreme weather events, and depend on agricultural livelihoods more susceptible to climate disruption. Within countries, marginalized communities including indigenous children, those with disabilities, girls, and children living in poverty face heightened climate vulnerability due to pre-existing social and economic inequalities. The report highlights how climate change interacts with and exacerbates these existing vulnerabilities, creating a profound climate injustice where those least responsible for emissions face the most severe consequences. This inequitable distribution of climate impacts threatens to reverse hard-won progress on child survival, health, education, and poverty reduction in many regions. The findings underscore that climate action is fundamentally an issue of intergenerational justice and equity, requiring approaches that center the needs and rights of the most vulnerable children while addressing underlying inequalities that amplify climate risks.

Children's Voices and Rights in Climate Action

Save the Children's research emphasizes the importance of centering children's voices and rights in climate policy and action. Inger Ashing, CEO of Save the Children International, articulated this urgency: "Across the world, children are forced to bear the brunt of a crisis they are not responsible for. Dangerous heat that puts their health and learning at risk; cyclones that batter their homes and schools; creeping droughts that shrivel up crops and shrink what's on their plates." Despite being disproportionately affected by climate change, children are often excluded from climate decision-making processes that will shape their futures. The report advocates for meaningful participation of children in climate governance at all levels, from local adaptation planning to international climate negotiations. This approach recognizes children not merely as victims of climate change but as rights-holders and agents of change with unique perspectives and solutions. The research highlights examples where children's participation has strengthened climate resilience planning and implementation, making interventions more responsive to their specific needs and circumstances. By framing climate action as a child rights issue, the report connects climate change to existing legal frameworks like the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, which obligates governments to protect children's rights to health, education, adequate nutrition, and development, all of which are threatened by climate impacts.

The Window for Action: Solutions and Opportunities

While presenting alarming projections, the report emphasizes that there remains a critical window of opportunity to secure a safer climate future for children. Ashing underscored this point: "This new research shows there is still hope, but only if we act urgently and ambitiously to rapidly limit warming temperatures to 1.5°C, and truly put children front and centre of our response to climate change at every level." Save the Children advocates for several key solutions, beginning with a rapid and just transition away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy systems. The organization also calls for increased climate finance, particularly for adaptation measures in regions where children are most vulnerable. Child-centered adaptation strategies that specifically address the unique needs and vulnerabilities of young people are highlighted as essential components of effective climate action. These include climate-resilient schools, healthcare systems prepared for changing disease patterns, social protection mechanisms that respond to climate shocks, and water security initiatives. The report also emphasizes the importance of education about climate change and sustainable development, equipping the next generation with knowledge and skills to navigate a changing world. By implementing these solutions with urgency and at scale, the research suggests it remains possible to significantly reduce the number of children facing unprecedented climate extremes.

Save the Children's Global Climate Response

As the world's leading independent child rights organization, Save the Children has positioned itself at the forefront of addressing climate impacts on children. Operating in approximately 110 countries, the organization implements programs that help children and their communities prevent, prepare for, adapt to, and recover from climate disasters and gradual climate change. These efforts include developing early warning systems for climate hazards, implementing school safety programs, supporting climate-smart agriculture to enhance food security, and providing emergency response when climate disasters strike. The organization also works to strengthen health systems to address changing disease patterns resulting from climate change and supports nature-based solutions that both mitigate emissions and protect communities from climate impacts. Beyond direct programming, Save the Children engages in advocacy at national and international levels, pushing for ambitious climate policies that protect children's rights and futures. The organization has been vocal in climate negotiations, calling for increased climate finance, stronger emission reduction targets, and specific protections for children in climate agreements. By connecting immediate humanitarian needs with longer-term climate resilience building, Save the Children exemplifies a comprehensive approach to protecting children in a warming world, while emphasizing that ultimate protection requires rapid global emission reductions to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The Critical Decade for Climate Action

The research comes at a pivotal moment as the world approaches the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, with scientists warning that this decade represents the final opportunity to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. Current global emissions trajectories and policy commitments remain insufficient to meet this goal, with the study highlighting the 2.7°C warming projection under existing national climate plans. This gap between ambition and action translates directly into millions more children facing dangerous climate extremes. The report emphasizes that decisions made in the next few years will shape the climate reality for generations to come, with particular significance for children born today who will live through the entire 21st century. The findings add a powerful human dimension to climate policy discussions often dominated by technical and economic considerations, showing in concrete terms how many young lives could be improved through more ambitious climate action. By quantifying the difference between climate scenarios in terms of children affected, the research provides a compelling moral case for accelerated climate action that centers intergenerational justice and children's rights. As countries prepare to submit enhanced climate commitments under the Paris Agreement's ratcheting mechanism, this research provides clear evidence that strengthened climate ambition is fundamentally about protecting the world's most vulnerable children from preventable harm.

Key Takeaways:

• Meeting the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target would spare 38 million children born in 2020 from unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme heat, compared to current climate commitments that put the world on track for 2.7°C warming.

• Climate change disproportionately affects children already facing inequality and discrimination, particularly those in lower and middle-income countries who have fewer resources to cope with climate shocks and greater vulnerability to diseases, hunger, and extreme weather events.

• Save the Children advocates for urgent climate solutions including a rapid transition away from fossil fuels, increased climate finance, child-centered adaptation strategies, and greater participation of children in shaping climate policies that will determine their futures.