Import Volumes Retreat Across Categories

India witnessed a significant 11% year-on-year decline in finished steel imports during April 2025, with volumes dropping to 0.52 million metric tons compared to 0.6 million metric tons in April 2024. This marked the first major monthly decline following the government's implementation of safeguard duties designed to protect domestic manufacturers from surging imports. According to the Steel Ministry report accessed by businessline, the finished steel imports for April were valued at ₹5,301 crore ($620 million), encompassing non-alloyed offerings, alloyed products, and stainless steel. Flat product shipments, which represent the primary import category, experienced an even steeper decline of over 13%, falling to 0.5 million metric tons. The overall steel import figure, including both finished and semi-finished products, also registered a nearly 4% decrease, totaling 0.64 million metric tons compared to 0.7 million metric tons in the same period last year. Despite these reductions, India remained a net importer of steel for the month, maintaining a trade deficit of approximately ₹2,216 crore.

Chinese Shipments Face Sharp Contraction

The impact of India's safeguard duties was particularly evident in the dramatic reduction of steel imports from China, which have been a primary target of the protective measures. Steel shipments from China experienced a substantial 27% year-on-year decline, dropping to 102,700 metric tons from 139,800 metric tons in April 2024. The financial impact was even more pronounced, with the value of these imports plummeting by nearly 42% to $109 million compared to $187.3 million in the corresponding month of the previous fiscal year. This significant reduction reflects the effectiveness of India's trade measures in curbing what domestic producers had characterized as unfairly priced imports that threatened local industry. The decline also suggests that Chinese exporters, facing higher tariff barriers, have found it increasingly difficult to maintain their competitive edge in the Indian market. This development aligns with the Indian government's broader strategy to reduce dependence on Chinese imports across various sectors while strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities under initiatives like "Make in India."

Japanese Imports Witness Dramatic Decline

Perhaps even more striking than the reduction in Chinese imports was the precipitous fall in steel shipments from Japan, traditionally considered a high-quality supplier to the Indian market. Steel volumes from Japan plummeted by 60%, reaching just 85,600 metric tons compared to 213,500 metric tons in April 2024. In value terms, these alloy shipments decreased by nearly 30% year-on-year to $117.5 million in April 2025, down from $167.2 million in the same month last year. This substantial decline in Japanese imports, despite Japan's reputation for producing premium steel grades, suggests that the impact of India's protective measures extends beyond targeting low-cost producers. The reduction may also reflect changing dynamics in India's domestic steel industry, which has been investing in enhancing its capabilities to produce higher-grade steel products that were previously imported. Additionally, the decline might indicate shifting procurement strategies among Indian buyers, who may be prioritizing domestic sources in response to both regulatory changes and supply chain considerations following global disruptions in recent years.

Korea Maintains Position as Top Supplier

While imports from China and Japan contracted significantly, South Korea maintained its position as India's leading steel supplier, with shipments actually increasing slightly during the period. Korea exported 154,000 metric tons of steel to India in April 2025, representing a modest 2% increase from the 150,400 metric tons shipped in the same month last year. The value of these imports rose more substantially, climbing 6.7% year-on-year to $135 million from $126.5 million previously. Korea's ability to maintain and even slightly grow its market share amid overall declining imports suggests several possibilities: Korean steel products may occupy specific niches that are less directly competitive with domestic production, the existing free trade agreement between India and Korea may provide some tariff advantages, or Korean suppliers might have adjusted their pricing strategies to remain competitive despite the changed regulatory environment. This resilience of Korean imports stands in stark contrast to the performance of other Asian suppliers, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, which saw their shipments to India reduced to nearly negligible levels, with Vietnam exporting just 13,000 metric tons and Indonesia a mere 1,100 metric tons.

European Nations See Surprising Import Growth

In a notable countertrend to the overall decline in imports, some European nations recorded substantial increases in their steel shipments to India during April. France and Germany emerged as surprising growth stories, with year-on-year import increases of 905% and 485%, reaching 30,300 metric tons and 30,600 metric tons respectively. This dramatic surge in European imports occurs against the backdrop of India's safeguard duties, which were primarily targeted at Asian producers suspected of dumping or benefiting from unfair subsidies. The growth in European shipments may reflect several factors: a shift in Indian procurement toward higher-value specialty steel products where European manufacturers excel, possible exemptions or lower duty rates for certain European products under existing trade arrangements, or strategic diversification by Indian buyers seeking to reduce dependence on Asian suppliers. This development suggests a potential reconfiguration of India's steel import patterns, with European producers potentially gaining market share at the expense of traditional Asian suppliers, particularly in specialized product categories where domestic alternatives may not yet be fully developed.

Domestic Price Movements Reflect Policy Impact

The Steel Ministry report highlighted notable movements in domestic steel prices following the implementation of safeguard duties. Rebar prices increased month-on-month as both bids and offers strengthened amid improving market sentiment. Similarly, hot-rolled coil prices edged higher "amid a wave of bullish sentiment triggered by the government's recent imposition of a safeguard duty on flat steel products." These price movements suggest that the protective measures are achieving one of their intended effects: providing domestic producers with greater pricing power by reducing competitive pressure from imports. The upward trajectory in domestic steel prices indicates that Indian producers are capitalizing on the reduced import competition to improve their margins, which could potentially support increased investment in capacity expansion and technological upgrades. However, this price inflation also raises concerns about the downstream impact on steel-consuming industries such as automotive, construction, and infrastructure, which may face higher input costs as a result of the trade protection measures. The government will likely need to balance these competing interests as it evaluates the effectiveness and continuation of its safeguard duty regime.

Export Performance Shows Mixed Results

While import reduction was a clear trend, India's steel export performance in April presented a more complex picture with significant regional variations. Overall exports declined by 26% year-on-year to 0.4 million metric tons, valued at ₹3,084 crore ($361 million). However, this aggregate figure masks considerable differences across destination markets. Traditional European buyers showed divergent trends, with Spain recording a remarkable 121% increase in import volumes from India, reaching 46,900 metric tons. In contrast, Italy and Belgium registered declines of 60% and 6%, importing 50,200 metric tons and 83,800 metric tons respectively, compared to 126,700 metric tons and 89,200 metric tons in April 2024. Regional markets also showed varied performance, with neighboring Nepal increasing its steel imports from India by 110% to 47,800 metric tons, while the United Arab Emirates recorded a modest 3.6% growth to 27,700 metric tons. These divergent export trends suggest that Indian steel producers are navigating a complex global market environment, potentially shifting their focus toward markets where they maintain competitive advantages or where demand conditions remain favorable despite broader global economic uncertainties.

Strategic Implications for India's Steel Sector

The April import-export data carries significant strategic implications for India's steel industry and policy framework. The effectiveness of safeguard duties in reducing imports, particularly from targeted countries like China and Vietnam, provides validation for the government's protective approach. However, the continued trade deficit in steel, despite these measures, highlights the persistent challenges in achieving self-sufficiency in this critical sector. The shifting patterns of imports, with European nations gaining share while Asian suppliers decline, may prompt a reevaluation of India's trade policy to ensure it addresses current market realities rather than historical patterns. For domestic producers, the reduced import competition offers a window of opportunity to strengthen their market position, improve operational efficiency, and invest in capacity expansion. However, this protection also comes with the responsibility to ensure adequate domestic supply at reasonable prices to support the competitiveness of downstream industries. As global steel markets continue to evolve amid changing trade policies, economic conditions, and technological developments, India's steel sector will need to balance the short-term benefits of import protection with the long-term imperatives of enhancing global competitiveness and integration into international value chains.

Key Takeaways:

• India's finished steel imports declined by 11% to 0.52 million metric tons in April 2025, with Chinese shipments falling 27% to 102,700 metric tons and Japanese imports plummeting 60% to 85,600 metric tons following the implementation of safeguard duties.

• Despite overall import reductions, South Korea maintained its position as India's top steel supplier with a slight 2% increase to 154,000 metric tons, while European nations recorded surprising growth with imports from France and Germany surging by 905% and 485% respectively.

• Domestic steel prices strengthened following the safeguard measures, with both rebar and hot-rolled coil prices rising amid improved market sentiment, even as India's steel exports declined 26% year-on-year to 0.4 million metric tons, creating a trade deficit of approximately ₹2,216 crore.