Global Production Landscape Shows Subtle Contraction

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released its latest monthly report revealing that global crude steel production experienced a marginal decline of 0.3% in April 2025 compared to the same month last year. The data, compiled from 69 countries that account for approximately 98% of worldwide steel production, shows output reached 155.7 million metric tons. This slight contraction continues the trend observed in the year-to-date figures, which indicate a 0.4% decrease in production during the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The minimal decline suggests a stabilizing global steel market, albeit with significant regional variations that reflect divergent economic conditions and industrial policies across major steel-producing nations.

Asian Giants Maintain Market Dominance

Asia continues to dominate global steel production, with the Asia and Oceania region accounting for 115.0 million metric tons in April 2025, representing nearly three-quarters of worldwide output. China, the world's largest producer, maintained its production level at 86.0 million metric tons, identical to April 2024 figures, suggesting Beijing's ongoing efforts to balance industrial output with environmental concerns and market stability. In contrast, India demonstrated robust growth with a 5.6% increase, producing 12.9 million metric tons and further cementing its position as the world's second-largest steel producer. Japan, however, experienced a significant 6.4% decline to 6.6 million metric tons, reflecting ongoing challenges in its industrial sector amid economic headwinds and energy transition pressures.

European Production Faces Persistent Challenges

European steel producers continue to navigate difficult market conditions, with the European Union (27) recording a 2.6% decrease in production to 11.1 million metric tons in April 2025. Germany, Europe's largest steel producer, experienced a substantial 10.1% decline to 3.0 million metric tons, highlighting the severe challenges facing the region's industrial heartland amid high energy costs, strict environmental regulations, and intensifying global competition. The broader European region outside the EU showed more resilience with only a 0.5% decrease. These figures underscore the structural challenges confronting European steelmakers as they balance decarbonization imperatives with maintaining industrial competitiveness in an increasingly challenging global market.

Emerging Markets Show Mixed Performance

Africa emerged as a bright spot in the global steel landscape, recording a 6.3% increase in production to 1.9 million metric tons, the strongest growth rate among all regions. The Middle East also demonstrated positive momentum with a 2.2% increase to 5.2 million metric tons, though its year-to-date performance shows a 5.7% contraction, suggesting recent recovery from earlier challenges. Türkiye stood out with a robust 7.0% growth to 3.0 million metric tons, bucking the trend in its broader region. In contrast, South America experienced a 2.4% decline to 3.3 million metric tons, while the Russia & other CIS + Ukraine region saw a more significant 4.4% decrease to 6.9 million metric tons, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and their economic repercussions.

North American Production Stabilizes

North American steel production showed remarkable stability with a marginal 0.2% increase to 9.0 million metric tons in April 2025. The United States, the region's dominant producer, recorded a negligible 0.3% decrease to 6.6 million metric tons, suggesting a steady industrial environment despite broader economic uncertainties. The region's year-to-date performance indicates a similar pattern of stability with a 0.3% increase compared to the first four months of 2024. This relative steadiness in North American production contrasts with the more volatile patterns observed in other regions, potentially reflecting the impact of industrial policies aimed at strengthening domestic manufacturing and reducing import dependence.

Top Producers Reveal Divergent Trajectories

Among the world's top ten steel-producing countries, performance varied significantly, highlighting the complex interplay of national industrial policies, economic conditions, and structural factors. While China maintained stable production and India demonstrated strong growth, traditional steel powerhouses like Japan (-6.4%), Russia (-5.1%), and Germany (-10.1%) experienced notable declines. Iran showed impressive growth at 4.6% despite ongoing international challenges, while Brazil contracted by 3.1%. These divergent trajectories among major producers reflect the increasingly fragmented nature of the global steel industry, where national and regional factors often outweigh global trends in determining production outcomes.

Future Outlook Amid Economic Uncertainties

As the global economy navigates persistent inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing energy transition, the steel industry faces a complex set of challenges and opportunities. The marginal decline in global production suggests a market that is neither in significant contraction nor robust expansion, but rather in a state of cautious equilibrium. Emerging economies, particularly in Asia and parts of the Middle East and Africa, continue to drive demand growth, while mature markets focus increasingly on value-added products and sustainable production methods. The industry's performance in the coming months will likely be shaped by macroeconomic policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and infrastructure spending, as well as the pace of decarbonization efforts across major producing regions.

Key Takeaways:

• Global crude steel production reached 155.7 million metric tons in April 2025, down 0.3% year-on-year, with China maintaining stable output at 86.0 million metric tons.

• Regional performance varied significantly, with Africa growing 6.3% and India increasing production by 5.6%, while Germany declined 10.1% and Japan contracted 6.4%.

• The European Union continues to face structural challenges with production down 2.6%, while North America showed stability with a marginal 0.2% increase in output.