Fiscal Fortitude & Footprint Fixes Fuel Forward Focus

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. announced its second-quarter 2025 financial results, revealing record steel shipments of 4.3 million net tons & revenues of $4.9 billion, a rise from $4.6 billion in the previous quarter. The company’s GAAP net loss of $470 million included $323 million in non-recurring charges linked to idled facilities, while the adjusted net loss stood at $247 million, or $0.50 per diluted share. Lourenco Goncalves noted, “Our second quarter results demonstrate that the footprint optimization initiatives announced a few months ago are already generating a positive impact on both costs and revenues.”

Earnings Elevation & EBITDA Enhancement Evident

The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $97 million, improving by $271 million compared to a first-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $174 million. Goncalves highlighted that Q2 cost performance will be amplified into Q3 and Q4, forecasting further EBITDA growth. “Our good cost performance in Q2 will be even further amplified into Q3 and Q4,” he remarked, adding that reduced inventories unlocked working capital, supporting the balance sheet.

Shipments Strength & Segment Sales Sustain Stability

In the second quarter, Cliffs’ steel product sales volumes included 40% hot-rolled, 27% coated, 15% cold-rolled, 5% plate, 3% stainless and electrical, & 10% other products like slabs and rail. Steelmaking revenues of $4.8 billion were divided into $1.5 billion from infrastructure and manufacturing, $1.4 billion from distributors and converters, $1.2 billion from direct automotive sales, and $600 million from sales to steel producers. Average net selling price per net ton reached $1,015, compared to $1,125 in the same period last year.

Cost Control & Contract Conclusion Catalyse Confidence

Cliffs achieved steel unit cost reductions of $15 per net ton compared to Q1 2025, maintaining an outlook for a full-year reduction of around $50 per net ton versus 2024. Goncalves underlined, “Our return to generating meaningful free cash flow and rapidly reducing debt is in sight.” Importantly, the firm will soon exit a five-year contract supplying slabs at low index-based prices, which recently hurt EBITDA. “This contract became a negative contributor to EBITDA and will not be extended,” Goncalves said.

Liquidity Leverage & Long-Term Leeway Lift Outlook

As of June 30, 2025, Cliffs reported total liquidity of $2.7 billion. The company revised capital expenditure plans to about $600 million, down from $625 million, and adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses to approximately $575 million. Depreciation, depletion and amortization increased to about $1.2 billion, reflecting accelerated depreciation from idled assets. Cash pension and OPEB payments remain at around $150 million.

Domestic Demand & Defensive Duties Drive Durability

Goncalves emphasized the role of domestic policy support, stating, “We have started to see the positive impact that tariffs have on domestic manufacturing, protecting domestic jobs and national security.” He added that Cliffs, as a major automotive steel supplier, expects to benefit from sustained demand and favourable trade policy under the Trump Administration. “Domestic steel pricing remains strong, we have visibility into our cost reductions, and our order book remains healthy,” Goncalves affirmed.

Strategic Steel & Supply Shifts Shape Sectoral Success

Looking forward, Goncalves predicted that foreign competitors may need to acquire steel capacity inside the United States to compete effectively. “Going forward, foreign competitors need to acquire steel capacity within the United States if they want to participate in this desirable market,” he noted. He stressed Cliffs’ unique positioning across automotive, electrical steels, stainless and plate, stating, “Cleveland-Cliffs’ assets, business and footprint are uniquely positioned to benefit from this new reality.”

Operational Optimism & Order Outlook Offer Opportunity

Despite challenges, Goncalves maintained an upbeat tone, pointing to strong domestic steel demand and resilient order books. “Our return to meaningful free cash flow is in sight,” he concluded, underscoring Cliffs’ role as a critical supplier to the revitalised American automotive and manufacturing sectors. The company aims to continue reducing costs, strengthening liquidity, and capitalising on policy-driven demand for domestic steel.

CLF:NYSE

Current Price: %10.76Change DoD: +1.28 (+13.39%)

Support & Resistance Levels

• Support: ~9.50 – 9.70

• Resistance: ~11.20 – 11.50

Simple Moving Averages (SMA)

• 50-day SMA: ~11.55

• 200-day SMA: ~14.40

• Currently trading below both; downtrend in broader picture, but today's sharp rebound may test 50-day.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• RSI: ~53

• Moved from oversold zone to neutral; still not overbought (>70).

MACD (12,26,9)

• MACD line crossed above the signal line recently — bullish momentum after recent weakness.

Bollinger Bands (20,2)

• Price broke above the middle band & approaching upper band; indicates strong upside volatility & possible continuation if momentum holds.

Fibonacci Retracement (from recent swing high ~14.00 to swing low ~9.00)

• Currently near the 38.2% retracement level (~10.80); next retracement targets are ~11.30 (50%) & ~11.90 (61.8%).

Key Takeaways

• Cleveland-Cliffs shipped a record 4.3 million net tons of steel, earning $4.9 billion.

• Adjusted EBITDA improved by $271 million, reflecting cost control & footprint changes.

• Ending a low-priced slab contract & strong domestic demand boost future prospects.