A Swedish think tank, SNS, has studied what happens when Europe swaps free carbon allowances for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The report finds heavy industry loses more output under CBAM, about twice as much as under free allowances. Steel suffers most because CBAM protects sales inside Europe but not exports. Yet the wider economy does better, because export prices rise relative to import prices. In Sweden, the overall cost of climate policy falls to almost zero. The study warns that clean industries can still be squeezed if exports are ignored.