Global steel excess capacity is set to hit 745 million metric tons by 2028, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development's Steel Outlook 2026. China exported a record 131.2 million metric tons of steel in 2025, capturing 41% of world exports, while receiving subsidies 15 times higher than global peers. India remains the brightest demand story, growing 9.8% in 2025, but global utilisation rates are falling toward 74%, threatening producers worldwide.