Europe's steel industry is split over the EU's upcoming emissions trading system review. ArcelorMittal, thyssenkrupp, and voestalpine want a freeze on rising carbon costs, saying key enablers like cheap green hydrogen and competitive electricity are not yet ready. But SSAB, Outokumpu, Stegra, and Hydnum say weakening the system would destroy the investment case for green steel already underway. McCloskey data shows only thirty-eight percent of Europe's planned green iron projects are considered certain or likely to proceed.