A new El Niño was officially declared on June 11, 2026, unusually early and shortly after the powerful 2023–24 event. Seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting suggest it could reach unprecedented strength by year-end. Global sea surface temperatures are at record highs, raising concerns that global warming may be intensifying El Niño behaviour. Scientists say the question of how climate change affects these events remains unresolved, and the 2026 event is providing critical new data.