Turkish flat steel producers face narrowing manoeuvring room as global overcapacity, European Union quotas and carbon costs converge. Global excess capacity is projected to reach 750 million metric tons by 2030. The European Union's 47% quota reduction and 50% above-quota duty threaten 3.5 million metric tons of Turkish exports. Approximately one-third of Turkey's flat steel capacity remains idle. Turkey's scrap-based production provides a carbon advantage despite structural challenges.