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China’s Colossal Crucible: CISA’s Circumspect Calculus for Ferrous Futures

Liu Jian, president of the China Iron & Steel Association, forecasts Chinese steel demand will remain above 800 million metric tons annually during 2026-30. Demand will trend downward over the next decade, likely falling below that level by 2035. China’s steel industry targets 50% concentration among its top ten producers by 2030 & 20% electric arc furnace production. Global steelmaking capacity will increase by 165 million metric tons between 2025 & 2027, while Chinese exports face 111 trade investigations.

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