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Carbon's Capricious Climb Confounds Consensus

European carbon prices have held a €74‑€76 range since mid‑April. A 6.7% spike to €77.5 on April 17 occurred amid peace news that lowered oil & gas prices, showing the market’s sensitivity to geopolitics. The UK will abolish its Carbon Price Support from April 2028, ending a supplementary tax on fossil power. Meanwhile, the EU’s Market Stability Reserve adjustment tightens allowance supply, supporting prices even as industrial output remains weak. For steelmakers, the €75 carbon price adds €135 per metric ton of blast furnace steel.

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