China's Iron & Steel Association has assessed that the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism poses a severe threat to Chinese steel exports, potentially imposing levies of 12% to 16% per metric ton. The mechanism, fully effective by 2026, could reduce China's European steel shipments by up to 40%. Full decarbonization of China's steel sector may require over one trillion dollars in investment, making the green transition one of the most expensive industrial challenges in history.